Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations
Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations
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DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2015.03.040
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发表时间：
2015-08
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
X. Wen;Ling-Yun He
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
X. Wen;Ling-Yun He
在现有的文献中，关于中国的房价是由什么驱动的，存在着激烈的争议。本文利用一个新的凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型，考察了中国住房价格波动背后的驱动力，特别是住房需求冲击和货币供给冲击在解释住房价格变动中的作用。实证结果表明，推动中国房价变动的主要因素是住房需求，而不是货币供应量。并进一步讨论了相关政策含义，即在货币政策的实施中是否要考虑房价的波动。通过政策模拟，我们发现，真正的房价增强型货币供应量规则是中国稳定经济的较好货币政策。
There is a bitter controversy over what drives the housing price in China in the existing literature. In this paper, we investigate the underlying driving force behind housing price fluctuations in China, especially focusing on the role of housing demand shock with that of money supply shock in explaining housing price movements, by a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Empirical results suggest that it is housing demand, instead of money supply, that mainly drives China’s housing price movements. Relevant policy implication is further discussed, namely, whether to consider the housing price fluctuations in the conduct of monetary policy. By means of the policy simulations, we find that a real house price-augmented money supply rule is a better monetary policy for China’s economy stabilization.