On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes
On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2115599118
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发表时间：
2021-11-23
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Jin, Fei-Fei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boucharel, Julien;Almar, Rafael;Jin, Fei-Fei
风浪是沿海动态和脆弱性的主要驱动因素，对沿海生态系统和社会经济活动具有重大影响。因此，通过更好地了解海浪活动和气候变化之间的联系来改善海岸灾害预测是至关重要的。在太平洋，主要的气候模式是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO），在过去十年中，科学兴趣的复兴导致了巨大的理论进步。然而，对ENSO沿海影响的研究仍然依赖于过于简化的跨太平洋标准偶极子的图像。在这里，我们考虑完整的ENSO变化来描绘其与热带和温带风暴的基本遥相关途径。这些强大的季节性调制关系使我们能够建立一个沿海波调制的数学模型，该模型基本上是由ENSO复杂的时空行为驱动的。考虑到这种对泛太平洋波浪活动的非线性气候控制，可以更好地描述波浪的季节到年际变化（解释方差+25%）和极端事件的强度（强ENSO事件+60%），因此为比以前对ENSO对沿海灾害影响的基线理解更准确地预测铺平了道路。
Wind-generated waves are dominant drivers of coastal dynamics and vulnerability, which have considerable impacts on littoral eco-systems and socioeconomic activities. It is therefore paramount to improve coastal hazards predictions through the better understanding of connections between wave activity and climate variability. In the Pacific, the dominant climate mode is El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has known a renaissance of scientific interest leading to great theoretical advances in the past decade. Yet studies on ENSO's coastal impacts still rely on the oversimplified picture of the canonical dipole across the Pacific. Here, we consider the full ENSO variety to delineate its essential teleconnection pathways to tropical and extratropical storminess. These robust seasonally modulated relationships allow us to develop a mathematical model of coastal wave modulation essentially driven by ENSO's complex temporal and spatial behavior. Accounting for this nonlinear climate control on Pan-Pacific wave activity leads to a much better characterization of waves' seasonal to interannual variability (+25% in explained variance) and intensity of extremes (+60% for strong ENSO events), therefore paving the way for significantly more accurate forecasts than formerly possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO's influence on coastal hazards.