Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios
Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios
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DOI：
10.1029/2018gl078789
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发表时间：
2018-09
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wenbin Liu;Wee Ho Lim;Wee Ho Lim;F. Sun;D. Mitchell;Hong Wang;Deliang Chen;I. Bethke;H. Shiogama;E. Fischer
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作者：
Wenbin Liu;Wee Ho Lim;Wee Ho Lim;F. Sun;D. Mitchell;Hong Wang;Deliang Chen;I. Bethke;H. Shiogama;E. Fischer
基于半度额外变暖、预测和预测影响的历史、+1.5 ° C和+2 °C实验的大集合，我们量化了水可用性的变化幅度（即，降水量减去实际蒸散量;月降水通量、潜热通量和地面空气温度的函数）低于正常条件（低于中值，例如，第20个百分点的水可用性）。我们发现，相对于历史实验，低于+1.5和+2 °C实验正常条件下的水可用性将在中纬度和热带地区减少，这表明水文干旱可能会在更温暖的世界中增加。这些导致东亚、中欧、南亚和东南亚（西非和阿拉斯加/加拿大西北部）更多（更少）的人面临缺水问题。将升温稳定在1.5 °C而不是2 °C将限制大部分地区的人口影响，在阿拉斯加/加拿大西北部，东南亚和亚马逊地区效果较差。在全球范围内，这一减少的人口影响约为1.17亿人。
Based on the large ensembles of the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts historical, +1.5 and +2 °C experiments, we quantify changes in the magnitude of water availability (i.e., precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration; a function of monthly precipitation flux, latent heat flux, and surface air temperature) below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile water availability). We found that, relative to the historical experiment, water availability below normal conditions of the +1.5 and +2 °C experiments would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics, indicating that hydrological drought is likely to increase in warmer worlds. These cause more (less) people in East Asia, Central Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (West Africa and Alaska/Northwest Canada) to be exposed to water shortage. Stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would limit population impact in most of the regions, less effective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. Globally, this reduced population impact is ~117 million people.