The extreme forecast index at the seasonal scale
The extreme forecast index at the seasonal scale
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DOI：
10.1002/asl2.448
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发表时间：
2013-10-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Pappenberger, F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dutra, E.;Diamantakis, M.;Pappenberger, F.
极端预报指数（EFI）概念已使用新型半分析技术应用于欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）2 m温度（T2 M）和总降水量（TP）的季节预报（S4）。来自合成数据的结果突出了大合奏大小的重要性，以减少由于采样的计算不确定性。这一新的诊断补充了目前的诊断，例如2012年欧洲中南部和东欧温暖的夏天。该模式提供了一个综合衡量特定季节预报集合与基础模式气候之间差异的方法，可用作预警指标。
The extreme forecast index (EFI) concept has been applied to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasts (S4) of 2-m temperature (T2M) and total precipitation (TP) using a novel semi-analytical technique. Results derived from synthetic data highlight the importance of large ensemble sizes to reduce the EFI calculation uncertainty due to sampling. This new diagnostic complements current diagnostics as exemplified for the 2012 warm summer in south central and eastern Europe. The EFI provides an integrated measure of the difference between a particular seasonal forecast ensemble and the underlying model climate which can be used as an early warning indicator.