Atmospheric circulation types and daily mortality in Athens, Greece
Atmospheric circulation types and daily mortality in Athens, Greece
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DOI：
10.2307/3455033
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发表时间：
2001-06-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Flocas, HA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kassomenos, P;Gryparis, A;Flocas, HA
我们研究了天气和中尺度大气环流类型对希腊雅典死亡率的短期影响。对流层低层的天气模式分为 8 个先验定义的类别。利用雅典地区地面监测网的气象参数，将中尺度天气类型分为11类； 1987 年至 1991 年每日死亡人数可用。我们应用广义加性模型 (GAM)，扩展泊松回归，使用 LOESS 平滑器来控制季节性模式的混杂影响。我们根据长期趋势、一周中的某一天、环境颗粒浓度和其他温度影响进行了调整。天气和中尺度这两种分类都在统计学上显着地解释了死亡率的每日变化。每日死亡率最高出现在以东南风为特征的日子（与高低压系统相比，增加 10%；95% 置信区间 (CI)，6.1-13.9%），其次是纬向流（5.8%；95% CI，1.8-10%）。高低压系统和西北道琼斯指数与最低的死亡率有关。季节规律与年度规律一致。对于中尺度类别，在寒冷时期，以东风气流类别为特征的日子里观察到最高死亡率（与没有主要成分的气流相比，增加 9.4%；95% CI，1.0-18.5%）。在温暖时期，死亡率最高发生在强南风气流类别期间（与没有主要成分的气流相比，增加 8.5%；95% CI，2.0-15.4%）。调整环境粒子水平使天气类别的估计关联保持不变，并稍微增加中尺度类别的影响。总之，天气和中尺度天气分类是研究温暖地中海气候情况下天气与健康关联的有用工具，天气分类。
We investigated the short-term effects of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric circulation types on mortality in Athens, Greece. The synoptic patterns in the lower troposphere were classified in 8 a priori defined categories. The mesoscale weather types were classified into 11 categories, using meteorologic parameters from the Athens area surface monitoring network; the daily number of deaths was available For 1987-1991. We applied generalized additive models (GAM), extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns. We adjusted for long-term trends, day of the week, ambient particle concentrations, and additional temperature effects. Both classifications, synoptic and mesoscale, explain the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southeasterly flow (increase 10%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.1-13.9% compared to the high-low pressure system), followed by zonal flow (5.8%; 95% CI, 1.8-10%). The high-low pressure system and the northwesterly dow are associated with the lowest mortality. The seasonal patterns are consistent with the annual pattern. For mesoscale categories, in the cold period the highest mortality is observed during days characterized by the easterly flow category (increase 9.4%; 95% CI, 1.0-18.5% compared to flow without the main component). In the warm period, the highest mortality occurs during the strong southerly flow category (8.5% increase; 95% CI, 2.0-15.4% compared again to flow without the main component). Adjusting for ambient particle levels leaves the estimated associations unchanged for the synoptic categories and slightly increases the effects of mesoscale categories. In conclusion, synoptic and mesoscale weather classification is a useful tool for studying the weather-health associations in a warm Mediterranean climate situation, synoptic classification.