European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2019 with focus on breast cancer
European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2019 with focus on breast cancer
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mdz051
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发表时间：
2019-05-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
Negri, E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Malvezzi, M.;Carioli, G.;Negri, E.
背景资料：为了克服癌症统计数据的滞后性，我们预测了2019年欧盟（EU）所有癌症和选定癌症部位的死亡人数和死亡率。材料和方法：我们从世界卫生组织和欧盟统计局数据库中检索了1970-2014年的癌症死亡证明和人口数据。我们通过对数泊松连接点回归模型确定的最近趋势期内死亡人数的线性回归获得了2019年的估计值。我们计算了1989- 2019年期间避免的死亡人数。结果：我们估计2019年欧盟约有141万例癌症死亡，对应的年龄标准化率为130.9/10万男性（自2014年以来为-5.9%）和82.9/10万女性（-3.6%）。预计2014年至2019年间，女性肺癌趋势将增加4.4%，达到14.8%。预计乳腺癌发病率为13.4。除胰腺癌外，预计主要肿瘤的有利趋势将继续。除波兰外，所有六个国家的乳腺癌死亡率趋势都是有利的。福尔斯的下降幅度最大的是50-69岁的女性（-16.4%），即筛查所覆盖的年龄组，但也见于20-49岁（-13.8%），而70-79岁（-6.1%）的下降幅度较小。与1988年的峰值相比，1989-2019年期间，欧盟避免了500多万例癌症死亡。结论：2014年至2019年，男性和女性的癌症死亡率将继续下降。乳腺癌的发病率将稳步下降，在过去的三十年里下降了约35%。这可能是由于减少了激素替代疗法的使用，改善了筛查，早期诊断和治疗。然而，由于人口老龄化，乳腺癌死亡人数并没有下降。
Background: To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU).Materials and methods: We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2019.Results: We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (-5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (-3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50-69 (-16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20-49 (-13.8%), while more modest at age 70-79 (-6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989-2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths.Conclusion: Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.