Tsunami early warning and decision support
Tsunami early warning and decision support
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海啸预警和决策支持
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-10-1839-2010
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
S. Dech
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Steinmetz;U. Raape;S. Tessmann;C. Strobl;M. Friedemann;T. Kukofka;T. Riedlinger;E. Mikusch;S. Dech
摘要。提出了一个创新的新开发的模块化和基于标准的决策支持系统（DSS），它构成了德国印度尼西亚海啸预警系统（GITEWS）的一部分。GITEWS项目源于在苏门答腊岛、爪哇岛和巴厘岛沿岸面向巽他弧的印度尼西亚海岸实施有效和高效的海啸预警和减灾系统的努力。沿着活跃大陆边缘的地质环境非常接近人口稠密地区，这是一个特别难以应对的地质环境，因为潜在海啸的传播时间天生就很短。国家政策要求在地震发生后的五分钟内发布初步预警。迫切需要一个端到端解决方案，其中决策支持将整个警告链考虑在内。选择系统基于预先计算的场景模拟和基于规则的决策支持，通过复杂的图形用户界面（GUI）传递给决策者，使用信息融合和快速信息聚合，以在尽可能短的时间内创建态势感知。该系统还包含风险和漏洞信息，其设计考虑了预警链的远端-它使决策者能够基于区域差异化的风险和漏洞信息来接受（或拒绝）支持的决策（参见Strunz et al., 2010）。虽然该系统努力尽快提供警告，但它没有适当的责任向接收者发送和传播警告。DSS只向印尼气象、气候和地球物理服务机构BMKG负责的一个传播系统（也可能是任何其他传播系统）广播其信息，该机构同时也是海啸预警中心的所在地。该系统将被视为朝着发展“系统的系统”迈出的一步，使印度洋周围的所有国家都能拥有这种早期预警系统。教科文组织政府间海洋学委员会（海洋学委员会），特别是其政府间协调小组（海洋学协调小组）有责任就这一发展进行协调并提出建议。因此，这里提出的决策支持系统被设计成模块化、可扩展和可互操作的（Raape等人，2010）。
Abstract. An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS) is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI) using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal) of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010). While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system) which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen as one step towards the development of a "system of systems" enabling all countries around the Indian Ocean to have such early warning systems in place. It is within the responsibility of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceonographic Commission (IOC) and in particular its Intergovernmental Coordinating Group (ICG) to coordinate and give recommendations for such a development. Therefore the Decision Support System presented here is designed to be modular, extensible and interoperable (Raape et al., 2010).