Assessment of the commercial viability of selected options for on-orbit servicing (OOS)
Assessment of the commercial viability of selected options for on-orbit servicing (OOS)
复制标题
评估在轨服务（OOS）选定方案的商业可行性
DOI：
10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.07.023
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
J. Kingston
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Graham;J. Kingston
本文件的目的是确定地球静止轨道通信卫星在轨维修的商业可行性。以前的研究表明，维修的技术可行性以及一些特派团的财务可行性，特别是加油，因此本文对这些维修任务和延长寿命的任务进行了分析。开发了一个简单的参数模型，用于模拟通信卫星收入流，并将结果用于确定服务卫星运营商的最大可能收入。由此，维修卫星的最高成本占通信卫星成本的比例是在三种利润情景下确定的，这三种利润情景分别是零利润、成熟行业的运营商可以接受的利润和新兴行业的运营商可以接受的利润。结果表明，虽然维修在财务上是可行的(零利润情况)，但那些导致Comsat寿命增加的任务更有可能在商业上可行。因此，加油在所有情况下都是可行的，但在大多数情况下，延长寿命只是微乎其微的可行。部分可操作的卫星维修任务也不太可能产生足够的价值，不足以证明进行维修是合理的。此外，维修任务的时间与预期剩余寿命有关，是确定任务׳S生存能力的一个主要因素。
The aim of this paper is to determine the commercial viability of on-orbit servicing of communications satellites in geostationary orbit. Previous studies have shown the technical feasibility of servicing as well as the financial viability of some missions, in particular refuelling, therefore this paper analyses these repair missions and life extension missions. A simple parametric model for simulating communications satellite revenue streams is developed and the results are used to determine the maximum possible revenue for a servicing satellite operator. From this, the maximum cost of the servicing satellite as a proportion of the cost of the communications satellite is determined under three profit scenarios representing zero profit, acceptable profit to an operator in a mature industry and acceptable profit to an operator in an emerging industry. The results show that while servicing is financially viable (zero profit scenario), those missions which result in an increase in Comsat life which is a multiple of the mission duration are more likely to be commercially viable. Refuelling is therefore viable in all cases but life extension in most cases is only marginally viable. Repair missions to satellites which are partially operable are also unlikely to deliver sufficient value to justify carrying out servicing. Also the timing of a servicing mission in relation to the expected remaining life expectancy is a major factor in determining the mission׳s viability.