An Applied Procedure for Estimating and Simulating Multivariate Empirical (MVE) Probability Distributions In Farm-Level Risk Assessment and Policy Analysis
An Applied Procedure for Estimating and Simulating Multivariate Empirical (MVE) Probability Distributions In Farm-Level Risk Assessment and Policy Analysis
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DOI：
10.1017/s107407080002037x
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发表时间：
2000-08
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
J. Richardson;S. Klose;A. Gray
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Richardson;S. Klose;A. Gray
仿真作为一种分析工具，在工业、政府和学术界越来越受欢迎。对于农业经济学家来说，这种普及是由于农民、农业企业和政策制定者对风险管理工具和决策辅助工具的兴趣日益增加。最近对农业风险分析的兴趣很大程度上来自于农业项目的变化，这些变化开创了一个不确定性增加的时代。随着种植灵活性的提高以及保险和营销选择的丰富，农民面临着一项艰巨的任务，即在管理他们所面临的日益增加的风险方面，整理出许多选择。像农民一样，整个食品和纤维行业的决策者都在寻找方法来理解和管理他们所处的日益不确定的环境。正如Ray等人所预测的那样，模拟作为评估和呈现风险替代方案的工具的独特能力，以及商品价格风险的预期增加，可能会在未来几年加速对模拟的兴趣。
Simulation as an analytical tool continues to gain popularity in industry, government, and academics. For agricultural economists, the popularity is driven by an increased interest in risk management tools and decision aids on the part of farmers, agribusinesses, and policy makers. Much of the recent interest in risk analysis in agriculture comes from changes in the farm program that ushered in an era of increased uncertainty. With increased planting flexibility and an abundance of insurance and marketing alternatives farmers face the daunting task of sorting out many options in managing the increased risk they face. Like farmers, decision makers throughout the food and fiber industry are seeking ways to understand and manage the increasingly uncertain environment in which they operate. The unique abilities of simulation as a tool in evaluating and presenting risky alternatives together with an expected increase in commodity price risk, as projected by Ray, et al., will likely accelerate the interest in simulation for years to come.