Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation
Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.06.003
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Yotov, Yoto V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bergstrand, Jeffrey H.;Larch, Mario;Yotov, Yoto V.
使用一种新的通用计量经济学规范，我们研究了国际贸易中的三个重要影响的测量，这些影响在历史上基本上是分开处理的：经济一体化协定对贸易的（部分）影响，国际边界和双边距离。首先，最近的研究集中在精确和公正的估计经济一体化协定（EIA）对成员国贸易的影响可能会偏向向上，由于控制不充分的时变外生不可观察的国家对双边出口成本的具体变化（可能降低国际相对于国内贸易的成本），我们发现这种偏见的证据使用适当指定的重力方程。第二，我们的新方法产生的“国际边界”对世界贸易的影响不断下降的统计显着估计，现在占内生EIA形成和未观察到的国家对异质性的初始水平。第三，我们证实了最近的证据提供了一个解决方案的“距离弹性之谜”，但这些距离对国际贸易的影响下降的估计是有偏见的向上不占内生EIA的形成和未观察到的国家对异质性。最后，我们的研究与数值一般均衡比较静态说明了一个实质性的差异，贸易影响的环境影响评估与不允许国际边界对世界贸易的影响下降。(C)2015 Elsevier B.V.版权所有。
Using a novel common econometric specification, we examine the measurement of three important effects in international trade that historically have been addressed largely separately: the (partial) effects on trade of economic integration agreements, international borders, and bilateral distance. First, recent studies focusing on precise and unbiased estimates of effects of economic integration agreements (EIAs) on members' trade may be biased upward owing to inadequate control for time-varying exogenous unobservable country-pair-specific changes in bilateral export costs (possibly decreasing the costs of international relative to intranational trade); we find evidence of this bias using a properly specified gravity equation. Second, our novel methodology yields statistically significant estimates of the declining effect of "international borders" on world trade, now accounting for endogenous EIA formations and unobserved country-pair heterogeneity in initial levels. Third, we confirm recent evidence providing a solution to the "distance-elasticity puzzle," but show that these estimates of the declining effect of distance on international trade are biased upward by not accounting for endogenous EIA formations and unobserved country-pair heterogeneity. We conclude our study with numerical general equilibrium comparative statics illustrating a substantive difference on trade effects of EIAs with and without allowance for the declining effects of international borders on world trade. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.