Joint Medium-Range Ensembles from The Met. Office and ECMWF Systems
Joint Medium-Range Ensembles from The Met. Office and ECMWF Systems
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大都会艺术博物馆联合中程乐团。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Mylne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. E. Evans;M. Harrison;R. Graham;K. Mylne
将模式灵敏度纳入集合预报系统的一种可能方法是将两个或多个模式的集合进行联合收割机组合。此外，使用添加了扰动的多于一个的分析，可能为单个分析不存在的误差增长提供进一步的不稳定方向。结果提出了从最近的调查，从欧洲中期天气预报中心和大都会气象局的系统相结合的合奏的潜在好处。联合王国办公室。多模式和多分析集成显着优于任何一个单独的系统在许多性能方面，包括确定性和概率预报技巧，传播技能的相关性，和天气信息的广度。它表明，这些改进是通过独立的，有用的信息包含在各个系统的组合，而不是通过简单的取消可能发生的偏差时，合奏F…
Abstract One possible method of incorporating model sensitivities into ensemble forecasting systems is to combine ensembles run from two or more models. Furthermore, the use of more than one analysis, to which perturbations are added, may provide further unstable directions for error growth not present with a single analysis. Results are presented from recent investigations into the potential benefit of combining ensembles from the systems of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and The Met. Office of the United Kingdom. The multimodel and multianalysis ensemble significantly outperforms either individual system in many performance aspects, including deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill, spread–skill correlations, and breadth of synoptic information. It is demonstrated that these improvements are achieved through the combination of independent, useful information contained in the individual systems, and not through simple cancellation of biases that could occur when ensembles f...