Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension
Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.016
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发表时间：
2006-02-02
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Zhuang, HC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ogata, Y;Zhuang, HC
为了灵敏地检测给定区域内的异常地震活动，如平静和激活，我们需要一个合适的统计参考模型来代表该地区的正常地震活动。地震的区域发现率被模拟为先前活动的函数，其具体形式是基于时间和空间上的经验定律，如修正的Omori公式和余震面积对震级的Utsu-Seki标度定律。本文总结了流行病类型余震序列(ETAS)模型的发展，并提出了Ogata[Ogata，Y.，1998]中提出的最佳拟合时空模型的扩展版本。地震发生的时空点过程模型。安装统计学家。数学，50：379-402。]。该模型对日本境内及周边地区的地震活动有明显较好的拟合效果。(C)2005 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
For sensitive detection of anomalous seismicity such as quiescence and activation in a given region, we need a suitable statistical reference model that represents a normal seismic activity in the region. The regional Occurrence rate of the earthquakes is modeled as a function of previous activity, the specific form of which is based oil empirical laws in time and space such as the modified Omori formula and the Utsu-Seki scaling law of aftershock area against magnitude, respectively. This manuscript summarizes the development of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and proposes an extended version of the best fitted space-time model that was suggested in Ogata [Ogata, Y., 1998. Space-time point-process models for earthquake Occurrences, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., 50: 379-402.]. This model indicates significantly better fit to seismicity in various regions in and around Japan. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.