Impacts of historical climate and land cover changes on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in East Asia between 1980 and 2010
Impacts of historical climate and land cover changes on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in East Asia between 1980 and 2010
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1980年至2010年历史气候和土地覆盖变化对东亚细颗粒物（PM2.5）空气质量的影响
DOI：
10.5194/acp-16-10369-2016
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发表时间：
2016-08-16
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Liao, Hong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fu, Yu;Tai, Amos P. K.;Liao, Hong
为了研究东亚地区1981-1985年和2007-2011年5年间气候、土地覆盖和土地利用（LCLU）变化以及人为排放对细颗粒物（PM2.5）的影响，我们使用同化气象数据和一套土地覆盖和土地利用数据驱动的全球化学传输模型（GEOS-Chem）进行了一系列模拟。我们的研究结果表明，气候变化本身可以导致冬季PM2.5浓度下降4.0-12.0 μ g m（-3）在中国北方，但在这些地区的夏季PM2.5增加6.0-8.0 μ g m（-3）。这些变化可归因于温度、风速和混合深度的长期趋势所驱动的所有PM2.5成分的化学和运输的变化。在东亚大部分地区，仅由于气候变化，二次有机气溶胶（SOA）浓度在夏季和冬季都增加了0.2-0.8 μ g m（-3），主要反映了气候变暖导致的生物挥发性有机化合物（VOC）排放增加。LCLU单独变化对PM2.5的影响（2.1 ~+1.3 μ g m（-3））的变化小于气候变化的变化，但在各组分中，SOA和有机碳对LCLU变化的敏感性（0.4 ~+ 1.2 μ g m（-3））的影响非常显著，尤其是在夏季，这主要是由耕地扩张和植被密度变化后生物源VOC排放量的变化驱动的。综合影响表明，虽然气候变化对PM2.5空气质量的影响更为明显，但LCLU的变化可能会抵消某些地区的部分气候影响，但会加剧其他地区的气候影响。由于气候和LCLU变化的综合结果，在这两个时期之间，整个东亚的PM2.5水平估计将变化-12.0至+12.0 μ g m（-3）。在研究期间，人为排放的变化仍然是东亚PM2.5空气质量恶化的最大贡献者，但气候和LCLU变化可能导致PM2.5水平的大幅改变。
To examine the effects of changes in climate, land cover and land use (LCLU), and anthropogenic emissions on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) between the 5-year periods 1981-1985 and 2007-2011 in East Asia, we perform a series of simulations using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by assimilated meteorological data and a suite of land cover and land use data. Our results indicate that climate change alone could lead to a decrease in wintertime PM2.5 concentration by 4.0-12.0 mu g m(-3) in northern China, but to an increase in summertime PM2.5 by 6.0-8.0 mu g m(-3) in those regions. These changes are attributable to the changing chemistry and transport of all PM2.5 components driven by long-term trends in temperature, wind speed and mixing depth. The concentration of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is simulated to increase by 0.2-0.8 mu g m(-3) in both summer and winter in most regions of East Asia due to climate change alone, mostly reflecting higher biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions under warming. The impacts of LCLU change alone on PM2.5 (2.1 to + 1.3 mu g m(-3)) are smaller than that of climate change, but among the various components the sensitivity of SOA and thus organic carbon to LCLU change (0.4 to + 1.2 mu g m(-3)) is quite significant especially in summer, which is driven mostly by changes in biogenic VOC emissions following cropland expansion and changing vegetation density. The combined impacts show that while the effect of climate change on PM2.5 air quality is more pronounced, LCLU change could offset part of the climate effect in some regions but exacerbate it in others. As a result of both climate and LCLU changes combined, PM2.5 levels are estimated to change by -12.0 to +12.0 mu g m(-3) across East Asia between the two periods. Changes in anthropogenic emissions remain the largest contributor to deteriorating PM2.5 air quality in East Asia during the study period, but climate and LCLU changes could lead to a substantial modification of PM2.5 levels.