Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Management in the Northwestern Part of Uzbekistan
Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Management in the Northwestern Part of Uzbekistan
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DOI：
10.3390/agronomy10081173
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Ishchanov, Javlonbek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hamidov, Ahmad;Khamidov, Mukhamadkhan;Ishchanov, Javlonbek
全球气候变化可能对农业生产的发展和可持续性产生重大影响。气候情景表明，在半干旱的乌兹别克斯坦，预期的气温升高可能导致农田蒸散量增加，灌溉用水需求增加，灌溉土地的改善状况恶化。灌溉方法的长期管理不善和排水基础设施的恶劣条件导致乌兹别克斯坦西北部地下水位和盐碱化水平上升。本文介绍了乌兹别克斯坦Khorezm地区灌溉地改良的分析结果，以及使用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和线性回归模型对地下水位和盐度水平的动态建模。研究估算了2020-2050年和2050-2100年气候变化影响下的地下水位深度和盐度动态。结果表明,该地区的地下水位深度通常会减少(从1.72到2050年的1.77到2100年基于Mann-Kendall趋势测试;从1.75到2050年的1.79到2100年根据线性回归模型),但其盐度水平会增加(从2050年的1.72克中心·l - 1 1.85 g点中心l - 1基于Mann-Kendall趋势测试;到2100年从2050年的1.97克中心·l - 1 2.1 g点中心l - 1在2100年根据线性回归模型)。这项研究的结果为地下水对气候变化的响应提供了见解，并有助于当局更好地规划该地区的管理战略。
Global climate change can have a significant impact on the development and sustainability of agricultural production. Climate scenarios indicate that an expected increase in air temperature in semiarid Uzbekistan can lead to an increase in evapotranspiration from agricultural fields, an increase in irrigation water requirements, and a deterioration in the ameliorative status of irrigated lands. The long-term mismanagement of irrigation practices and poor conditions of drainage infrastructure have led to an increase in the water table and its salinization level in the northwestern part of Uzbekistan. This article presents the results of an analysis of the amelioration of irrigated lands in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan as well as the modeling of the dynamics of water table depths and salinity levels using the Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression model. The study estimated the water table depths and salinity dynamics under the impact of climate change during 2020-2050 and 2050-2100. The results show that the water table depths in the region would generally decrease (from 1.72 m in 2050 to 1.77 m by 2100 based on the Mann-Kendall trend test; from 1.75 m in 2050 to 1.79 m by 2100 according to the linear regression model), but its salinity level would increase (from 1.72 g center dot L-1 in 2050 to 1.85 g center dot L-1 by 2100 based on the Mann-Kendall trend test; from 1.97 g center dot L-1 in 2050 to 2.1 g center dot L-1 by 2100 according to the linear regression model). The results of the study provide insights into the groundwater response to climate change and assist authorities in better planning management strategies for the region.