Assessment of offshore wind farm characteristics with the cloud resolving storm simulator: A case study in Japan
Assessment of offshore wind farm characteristics with the cloud resolving storm simulator: A case study in Japan
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利用云解析风暴模拟器评估海上风电场特性：以日本为例
DOI：
10.1002/we.2176
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Hikihara Takashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Raak Fredrik;Susuki Yoshihiko;Tsuboki Kazuhisa;Kato Masaya;Eguchi Shinya;Hikihara Takashi
日本风电场的风况和输出功率特性是通过所谓的云解析风暴模拟器的高分辨率天气预报进行评估的。根据风电场 10 分钟平均测量值（平均每小时数据）评估一年的 2 公里空间分辨率和 1 小时时间分辨率的 30 小时预测。此外，还根据 1 Hz 测量值评估了具有 200 米空间分辨率和 1 秒时间分辨率的极其详细的短期预测。对于每小时数据，预测风速的 RMSE 为 3.0 至 3.5 m/s，风电的预测值为每单位约 0.3。对于每小时数据，预测风向的误差标准偏差为 16° 至 28°，对于 1 Hz 数据，预测误差标准偏差通常低于 10°。我们表明，风力发电的变异性（这里用增量表示）可以在几个小时的时间尺度上进行评估。发现测量的和预测的风谱在短时间尺度和长时间尺度上相似。
Wind conditions and output power characteristics of a wind farm in Japan are evaluated with highly resolved weather predictions from the so‐called cloud resolving storm simulator. One year of 30‐hour‐ahead predictions with 2‐km spatial resolution and 1‐hour time resolution are evaluated against 10‐minute averaged measurements (averaged to hourly data) from the wind farm. Also, extremely detailed shorter‐term predictions with 200‐m spatial resolution and 1‐second time resolution are evaluated against 1‐Hz measurements. For the hourly data, wind speeds are predicted with an RMSE of 3.0 to 3.5 m/s, and wind power with about 0.3 per unit. Wind direction is predicted with a standard deviation of errors of 16° to 28° for hourly data, and generally below 10° for the 1‐Hz data. We show that wind power variability—here in terms of increments—can be assessed on the timescale of several hours. The measured and predicted wind spectra are found similar on both short and long timescales.