Forecasting forecast skill
Forecasting forecast skill
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DOI：
10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115
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发表时间：
1987-02
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
E. Kalnay;A. Dalcher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Kalnay;A. Dalcher
它表明，它是可能的预测数值天气预报的技能-这是从一天到一天，从一个地区到另一个地区的变量。这已经完成了使用作为预测器的离散（平均相关性测量）之间的集合的预测开始从五个不同的分析。这些分析以前是为卫星数据影响研究得出的，包括了在北方半球与使用不同观测系统有关的中度扰动。当北方半球被用作验证区域时，技能的预测相当差。这是由于这样一个事实，即这样一个大的区域通常包含有良好的预测区域以及预测较差的区域，并且不允许在它们之间进行区分。然而，当使用区域验证时，集合预报离散度提供了对单个预报质量的非常好的预测。
It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.