Lifetime Incomes in the United States Over Six Decades
Lifetime Incomes in the United States Over Six Decades
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DOI：
10.3386/w23371
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发表时间：
2017-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Fatih Guvenen;G. Kaplan;Jae Song;Justin Weidner
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文献类型：
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作者：
Fatih Guvenen;G. Kaplan;Jae Song;Justin Weidner
利用1957年至2013年的个人劳动收入历史的面板数据，我们记录了关于美国终身收入分配的两个经验事实。首先，从1967年进入劳动力市场的队列到1983年进入的队列，男性终生收入中位数下降了10%-19%。我们发现，在此期间，男性终生收入分配中较低的四分之三百分位数几乎没有增长。考虑到雇主提供的医疗和养老金福利的增加，部分缓解了这些发现，但不会改变实质性的结论。对于女性来说，从1957年到1983年，中位数的终身收入增加了22%-33%，但这些增长是与最早的队列中非常低的终身收入相关的。新老人群之间的差异在很大程度上归因于劳动力市场早期的收入差异。对目前在劳动力市场中的队列观察到的部分生命周期收入概况表明，终身收入的停滞不太可能扭转。其次，我们发现，在每个性别群体中，终生收入的不平等现象显著加剧。然而，正在缩小的终生性别差距使整体的终生不平等基本保持不变。性别群体内部的增加在很大程度上归因于年轻时不平等的增加，年轻群体的部分生命周期收入数据表明，不平等的增加可能会继续下去。总体而言，我们的发现指出，劳动力市场结果对年轻工人的实质性变化是过去50年来终身收入水平和不平等趋势的关键驱动因素。
Using panel data on individual labor income histories from 1957 to 2013, we document two empirical facts about the distribution of lifetime income in the United States. First, from the cohort that entered the labor market in 1967 to the cohort that entered in 1983, median lifetime income of men declined by 10%–19%. We find little-to-no rise in the lower three-quarters of the percentiles of the male lifetime income distribution during this period. Accounting for rising employer-provided health and pension benefits partly mitigates these findings but does not alter the substantive conclusions. For women, median lifetime income increased by 22%–33% from the 1957 to the 1983 cohort, but these gains were relative to very low lifetime income for the earliest cohort. Much of the difference between newer and older cohorts is attributed to differences in income during the early years in the labor market. Partial life-cycle profiles of income observed for cohorts that are currently in the labor market indicate that the stagnation of lifetime incomes is unlikely to reverse. Second, we find that inequality in lifetime incomes has increased significantly within each gender group. However, the closing lifetime gender gap has kept overall lifetime inequality virtually flat. The increase within gender groups is largely attributed to an increase in inequality at young ages, and partial life-cycle income data for younger cohorts indicate that the increase in inequality is likely to continue. Overall, our findings point to the substantial changes in labor market outcomes for younger workers as a critical driver of trends in both the level and inequality of lifetime income over the past 50 years.