Connecting Risk and Resilience for a Power System Using the Portland Hills Fault Case Study
Connecting Risk and Resilience for a Power System Using the Portland Hills Fault Case Study
复制标题
使用波特兰山故障案例研究将电力系统的风险和弹性联系起来
作者：
V. Chalishazar;T. Brekken;Darin Johnson;Kent Yu;J. Newell;K. Chin;R. Weik;E. Dierickx;M. Craven;Maty Sauter;A. Olennikov;Jennifer Galaway;A. Radil
太平洋西北地区活跃的地震断层促使该地区的电力公司深入思考并积极干预，以支持电网的恢复能力。为了进一步努力，本研究引入了基于蒙特卡罗（MC）的电力系统建模作为一种手段，为基于性能的地震工程方法提供信息，并在波特兰通用电气（PGE）服务区域模拟了100,000次6.8级（M6.8）波特兰山断层（PHF）场景的样本地震，作为概念验证。本文还提出了弹性指标地震负荷恢复系数（SLRF）来量化停电后电力系统的恢复能力，从而可用于量化地震经济风险。根据MC结果，SLRF评估为19.7小时，考虑到事件发生的概率为2000年的1次，发现M6.8 PHF事件的预期经济后果成本为1.8亿美元，年化风险为9万美元。MC结果还确定了PGE系统中八个最重要的变电站，即：即导致最大负载损失的那些。本文的结论是，改造这些变电站将M6.8 PHF事件的预期后果成本降低到1.17亿美元。
Active seismic faults in the Pacific Northwest area have encouraged electric utilities in the region to deeply contemplate and proactively intervene to support grid resilience. To further this effort this research introduces Monte Carlo (MC)-based power system modeling as a means to inform the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering method and simulates 100,000 sample earthquakes of a 6.8 magnitude (M6.8) Portland Hills Fault (PHF) scenario in the Portland General Electric (PGE) service territory as a proof of concept. This paper also proposes the resilience metric Seismic Load Recovery Factor (SLRF) to quantify the recovery of a downed power system and thus can be used to quantify earthquake economic risk. Using MC results, the SLRF was evaluated to be 19.7 h and the expected economic consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event was found to be $180 million with an annualized risk of $90,000 given the event’s 1 in 2000 year probability of occurrence. The MC results also identified the eight most consequential substations in the PGE system—i.e., those that contributed to maximum load loss. This paper concludes that retrofitting these substations reduced the expected consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event to $117 million.