Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter
Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter
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DOI：
10.1098/rsbl.2008.0254
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发表时间：
2008-10-23
期刊：
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Guisan, Antoine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Broennimann, Olivier;Guisan, Antoine
预测物种入侵的地理范围的经典方法包括在原生范围内训练模型，并将它们投射到不同的潜在入侵区域。然而，最近的研究表明，这一方法可能会受到阻碍，实现气候生态位的变化，使入侵物种蔓延到气候上不同于那些在本地范围内占据的入侵范围的栖息地。我们提出了一种替代方法，涉及拟合模型与所有范围的汇总数据。我们发现，这种汇集的方法提高了预测的入侵程度的斑点矢车菊（矢车菊）在北美的模型完全基于欧洲本土的范围。此外，它在基于入侵范围的模型上表现同样出色，同时确保包括与欧洲生态位气候相似的地区，该物种可能会进一步扩散。然后，我们比较了这些模型在严重气候变暖情景下对2080年的预测。从合并模型的预测显示较少的地区的中间气候适宜性比从本地或入侵范围模型的预测，这表明一个更好的共识建模技术和减少不确定性。
The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.