High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century
High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century
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印度 21 世纪高分辨率气候变化情景
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. B. Pant
中科院分区：
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作者：
K. Kumar;A. Sahai;K. K. Kumar;S. Patwardhan;P. Mishra;J. V. Revadekar;K. Kamala;G. B. Pant
由哈德利气候预测和研究中心开发的最先进的区域气候建模系统，称为 PRECIS（为影响研究提供区域气候），已应用于印度开发高分辨率气候变化情景。对 PRECIS 的当今模拟（1961-1990）进行了评估，包括检查增强分辨率的影响和识别偏差。 RCM 能够解析比 GCM 更精细尺度的特征，特别是那些与提高地形分辨率相关的特征。使用 RCM 最显着的优点是更真实地表示夏季季风降雨的空间模式，例如西高止山脉迎风面的最大值。一些地区的降水量存在显着的定量偏差，这主要是由于驱动 GCM 中存在类似的偏差。 PRECIS 在温室气体浓度和硫酸盐气溶胶增加的情况下进行的模拟表明，到 21 世纪末，降雨量和温度都会显着增加。在 A2 和 B2 情景下，地表气温和降雨量显示出类似的预测变化模式，但 B2 情景显示的预测变化幅度略低。变暖现象在全国范围内普遍存在，但预计的降雨量变化存在很大的空间差异。印度中西部的降雨量预计将出现最大增幅。预计未来最高和最低气温的极端情况也会增加，但夜间气温的上升速度快于白天的气温。极端降水量在大范围内显着增加，特别是在印度西海岸和印度中西部地区。
A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, is applied for India to develop high-resolution climate change scenarios. The present-day simulation (1961-1990) with PRECIS is evaluated, including an examination of the impact of enhanced resolution and an identification of biases. The RCM is able to resolve features on finer scales than those resolved by the GCM, particularly those related to improved resolution of the topography. The most notable advantage of using the RCM is a more realistic representation of the spatial patterns of summer monsoon rainfall such as the maximum along the windward side of the Western Ghats. There are notable quantitative biases in precipitation over some regions, mainly due to similar biases in the driving GCM. PRECIS simulations under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in both rainfall and temperature towards the end of the 21st century. Surface air temperature and rainfall show similar patterns of projected changes under A2 and B2 scenarios, but the B2 scenario shows slightly lower magnitudes of the projected change. The warming is monotonously widespread over the country, but there are substantial spatial differences in the projected rainfall changes. West central India shows maximum expected increase in rainfall. Extremes in maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase into the future, but the night temperatures are increasing faster than the day temperatures. Extreme precipitation shows substantial increases over a large area, and particularly over the west coast of India and west central India.