Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of crop pests and diseases in a changing world: A case study on citrus greening
Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of crop pests and diseases in a changing world: A case study on citrus greening
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DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.13455
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Johnson, Leah R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taylor, Rachel A.;Ryan, Sadie J.;Johnson, Leah R.
1.在不同的气候变化情景下，预测现在和未来作物病虫害可能发生的地点是作物管理的一个重大挑战。一种解决办法是估计虫害/病害的基本热生态位，以表明在何处可能建立。在这里，我们开发了用于估计和显示害虫和病原体的基本热生态位的方法，并将这些方法应用于黄龙病（HLB），这是一种目前威胁全球柑橘产业的媒介传播疾病。我们推导出一个适合性度量的基础上的HLB传输树主机和它的载体柑橘Diaphorina柑橘之间的数学模型，并将温度对载体性状的影响，在不同温度下进行的实验室实验的数据。我们使用历史范围的HLB.3的数据验证模型。我们的模型预测HLB的传输可能在16和33摄氏度之间，峰值传输在25摄氏度附近。在我们的适宜性度量的最大的不确定性与死亡率的载体在峰值传输，和繁殖力的边缘的热范围，表明这些参数需要进一步的实验工作。我们制作全球热生态位地图绘制多少个月每个位置是适合建立的害虫/疾病。该分析表明，HLB的最高适用性发生在赤道附近的大型柑橘产区，如巴西和东南亚。在北方半球，伊比利亚半岛和加州是HLB适合长达7个月的一年，目前是免费的HLB。5.政策影响。我们创建了一个热生态位图，该图显示了作物疾病或害虫进入这些地区的最大风险。这表明应将监测重点放在哪些地方，以防止定居。我们的机制方法可以用来预测在不同的气候变化情景下，黄龙病传播的新区域，并很容易适应其他媒介传播的疾病和作物害虫。
1. Predicting where crop pests and diseases can occur, both now and in the future under different climate change scenarios, is a major challenge for crop management. One solution is to estimate the fundamental thermal niche of the pest/disease to indicate where establishment is possible. Here, we develop methods for estimating and displaying the fundamental thermal niche of pests and pathogens and apply these methods to Huanglongbing (HLB), a vector-borne disease that is currently threatening the citrus industry worldwide.2. We derive a suitability metric based on a mathematical model of HLB transmission between tree hosts and its vector Diaphorina citri, and incorporate the effect of temperature on vector traits using data from laboratory experiments performed at different temperatures. We validate the model using data on the historical range of HLB.3. Our model predicts that transmission of HLB is possible between 16 and 33 degrees C with peak transmission at similar to 25 degrees C. The greatest uncertainty in our suitability metric is associated with the mortality of the vectors at peak transmission, and fecundity at the edges of the thermal range, indicating that these parameters need further experimental work.4. We produce global thermal niche maps by plotting how many months each location is suitable for establishment of the pest/disease. This analysis reveals that the highest suitability for HLB occurs near the equator in large citrus-producing regions, such as Brazil and South-East Asia. Within the Northern Hemisphere, the Iberian peninsula and California are HLB suitable for up to 7 months of the year and are free of HLB currently.5. Policy implications. We create a thermal niche map which indicates the places at greatest risk of establishment should a crop disease or pest enter these regions. This indicates where surveillance should be focused to prevent establishment. Our mechanistic method can be used to predict new areas for Huanglongbing transmission under different climate change scenarios and is easily adapted to other vector-borne diseases and crop pests.