Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales
Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.adj5763
复制
发表时间：
2024-03
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Cooper M. Malanoski;Alex Farnsworth;D. Lunt;Paul J. Valdes;E. Saupe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cooper M. Malanoski;Alex Farnsworth;D. Lunt;Paul J. Valdes;E. Saupe
人为气候变化正在迅速增加，并已影响到生物多样性。尽管它在未来的预测中很重要，但对气候介导灭绝的潜在机制的理解仍然有限。我们提出了一个综合的方法来研究内在特征与外在气候变化在过去4.85亿年中介导海洋无脊椎动物灭绝风险的作用。我们发现，生理特征和气候变化的幅度相结合，是必要的解释海洋无脊椎动物灭绝模式。我们的研究结果表明，如果气候变化的幅度足够大，以前确定为抗灭绝的类群可能仍然会灭绝。揭示物种在过去灭绝的原因可以为当前对生物多样性的威胁提供信息。气候变化和物种特征在过去和现在的灭绝中都有牵连。Malanoski等人利用古生物学数据库中的海洋无脊椎动物数据，研究了哪些因素可以解释哪些物种在中生代灭绝。通过重建过去的气候，作者发现，具有较窄的热生态位宽度，较小的地理范围或较小的身体的物种更有可能灭绝，就像那些生活在经历更剧烈气候变化的较热地区的物种一样。虽然性状是灭绝风险的重要预测因子，但在两极或赤道附近具有狭窄热生态位的物种灭绝风险最大。- 比安卡洛佩斯物种特征和气候变化都解释了为什么某些海洋无脊椎动物在中生代灭绝。
Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough. Editor’s summary Uncovering the reasons why species went extinct in the past can inform current threats to biodiversity. Climate change and species traits have been implicated in both past and current extinctions. Malanoski et al. investigated what factors explain which species went extinct across the Phanerozoic using data on marine invertebrates from the Paleobiology Database. By reconstructing the past climate, the authors found that species with narrower thermal niche breadths, smaller geographic ranges, or smaller bodies were more likely to go extinct, as were those living in hotter places that experienced more drastic climate change. Although traits are important predictors of extinction risk, species with narrow thermal niches near the poles or equator were at the greatest risk of extinction. —Bianca Lopez Both species traits and climate change explain why certain marine invertebrates went extinct across the Phanerozoic.