Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations
Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl095778
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发表时间：
2021-12-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Shiogama, Hideo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dong, Yue;Armour, Kyle C.;Shiogama, Hideo
本研究在8个CMIP6全球气候模式(GCM)的历史模拟中，评估了来自全球能源收支限制的有效气候敏感性(EFCS)和瞬变气候响应(TCR)。这些计算是通过使用辐射强迫模式比对项目(RFMIP)模拟来实现的，该模拟允许精确地量化辐射强迫。由于辐射反馈的变化和海洋吸热效率的变化，长期的能源预算限制通常低估了二氧化碳四倍增长的EffCS和二氧化碳陡增的TCR。由观测到的增暖模式强迫的大气GCM产生较低的EffCS值，这些值更符合从观测到的历史能量收支变化推断的值。EffCS估计与模型和观测的历史能源收支限制的差异可追溯到模拟和观测的历史地表变暖模式之间的差异。
This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long-term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO2 quadrupling and TCR from CO2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.