The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant.
The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant.
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.20.2100428
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发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease (CMMID) COVID-19 Working Group
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hodgson D;Flasche S;Jit M;Kucharski AJ;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease (CMMID) COVID-19 Working Group
我们评估了通过疫苗接种达到针对 SARS-CoV-2 群体免疫阈值的可行性，考虑到疫苗有效性 (VE)、病毒的传播性、人群中已有的免疫力水平以及年龄结构。如果高传染性变异在自然获得性免疫力水平较低的地区和/或在“15岁以下”人群中占主导地位，那么只有在VE≥80%的情况下才能在不采用非药物干预的情况下控制感染，并将覆盖范围扩大到儿童。
We assess the feasibility of reaching the herd immunity threshold against SARS-CoV-2 through vaccination, considering vaccine effectiveness (VE), transmissibility of the virus and the level of pre-existing immunity in populations, as well as their age structure. If highly transmissible variants of concern become dominant in areas with low levels of naturally-acquired immunity and/or in populations with large proportions of < 15 year-olds, control of infection without non-pharmaceutical interventions may only be possible with a VE ≥ 80%, and coverage extended to children.