PROBABILITY OF FEMALE-TO-MALE TRANSMISSION OF HIV-1 IN THAILAND
PROBABILITY OF FEMALE-TO-MALE TRANSMISSION OF HIV-1 IN THAILAND
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(94)90990-3
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发表时间：
1994-01-22
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
LOGINI, IM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
MASTRO, TD;SATTEN, GA;LOGINI, IM
在泰国的人类免疫缺陷病毒1型（HIV-1）感染的流行病，使估计的概率，女性对男性的HIV-1的传播，每次性接触，在一项研究中的1115 21岁的男性应征入伍者，其中77（6.9%）是HIV-1血清阳性，与妓女的性行为被确定为HIV-1的主要模式。传输通过一个数学模型，包括应征者首次性接触的年龄、与妓女发生性行为的频率和原籍省份的数据，以及各省特异性妓女的HIV-1血清阳性率，我们估计每次性接触传播HIV-1的概率为0.031（95%置信限[CL] 0.025-0.040）。考虑到自我报告的接触频率的随机误差，估计值为0.056（95% CL 0.041-0.075）。在有性传播疾病史的男性中，传播概率明显更高，这些估计数大大高于北美的类似估计数。这种高的异性性传播概率有助于解释HIV-1在泰国以及其他HIV-1传播主要是异性性传播的国家中的快速传播。
The epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in Thailand has allowed an estimate to be made of the probability of female-to-male HIV-1 transmission per sexual contact.In a study of 1115 21 year-old male military conscripts, of whom 77 (6.9%) were HIV-1 seropositive, sex with female prostitutes was identified as the principal mode of HIV-1. transmission. With a mathematical model including data on conscript's age at first sexual contact, frequency of sex with female prostitutes, and province of origin; as well as province-specific HIV-1 seroprevalence of prostitutes, we estimated the probability of HIV-1 transmission per sexual contact to be 0.031 (95% confidence limits [CL] 0.025-0.040). Allowing for random error in the self-reported frequency of contacts, the estimate was 0.056 (95% CL 0.041-0.075). The transmission probability was significantly greater among men with a history of sexually-transmitted diseases.These estimates are substantially higher than analogous estimates made in North America. This high per-act probability of heterosexual transmission helps to explain the rapid spread of HIV-1 in the emerging epidermic in Thailand and perhaps in other countries where HIV-1 transmission is predominately heterosexual.