Seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice initialized with observations of ice thickness
Seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice initialized with observations of ice thickness
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DOI：
10.1029/2012gl053576
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发表时间：
2012-11-08
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Zhang, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lindsay, R.;Haas, C.;Zhang, J.
从2012年6月1日开始，对2012年9月北极海冰厚度和范围进行季节性预测。通过冰-海耦合模型进行综合预测。首次利用冰厚观测来修正初始冰厚分布，以改善初始条件。使用来自两个机载活动的数据：NASA 冰桥行动和 SIZONet。该模型在 4 月和 5 月使用 2012 年的再分析数据进行推进，在 6 月至 9 月则被迫使用前七个夏天的再分析数据。与未经校正的对照运行相比，校正运行中的冰范围在太平洋区域平均较低，在大西洋区域较高。预测总冰范围为 4.4 +/- 0.5 M km(2)，比对照运行得出的范围小 0.2 M km(2)，但比观测到的 9 月份范围高 0.8 M km(2)。引用：Lindsay, R.、C. Haas、S. Hendricks、P. Hunkeler、N. Kurtz、J. Paden、B. Panzer、J. Sonntag、J. Yungel 和 J. Zhang (2012)，通过冰厚度观测初始化的北极海冰季节预测，地球物理学。资源。快报，39，L21502，doi：10.1029/2012GL053576。
Seasonal forecasts of the September 2012 Arctic sea ice thickness and extent are conducted starting from 1 June 2012. An ensemble of forecasts is made with a coupled ice-ocean model. For the first time, observations of the ice thickness are used to correct the initial ice thickness distribution to improve the initial conditions. Data from two airborne campaigns are used: NASA Operation IceBridge and SIZONet. The model was advanced through April and May using reanalysis data from 2012 and for June-September it was forced with reanalysis data from the previous seven summers. The ice extent in the corrected runs averaged lower in the Pacific sector and higher in the Atlantic sector compared to control runs with no corrections. The predicted total ice extent is 4.4 +/- 0.5 M km(2), 0.2 M km(2) less than that made with the control runs but 0.8 M km(2) higher than the observed September extent. Citation: Lindsay, R., C. Haas, S. Hendricks, P. Hunkeler, N. Kurtz, J. Paden, B. Panzer, J. Sonntag, J. Yungel, and J. Zhang (2012), Seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice initialized with observations of ice thickness, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21502, doi:10.1029/2012GL053576.