World food trends and prospects to 2025
World food trends and prospects to 2025
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.96.11.5929
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发表时间：
1999-05-25
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Dyson, T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dyson, T
本文综述了世界及其主要地区粮食（特别是谷物）生产的趋势和前景。尽管人们担心会出现相反的情况，但近年来，我们看到在更好地为人类提供食物方面不断取得进展。撒哈拉以南非洲是唯一的主要例外。展望未来，本文认为，近期谷物产量趋势的延续应足以科普人口驱动的谷物需求扩张，直到2025年，然而，由于区域需求扩张与供应潜力之间的不匹配程度越来越大，世界谷物（和非谷物食品）贸易将大幅扩张。人口增长对全球农业造成的其他后果包括需要更有效地利用水资源，以及对氮肥的更大依赖（例如，南亚）。各地的农业将更多地依赖信息密集型农业管理程序。此外，尽管总体进展持续，但到2025年仍将有大量营养不良人口，特别是在北美，收成波动加剧的迹象令人严重关切。因此，尽管未来的总体粮食趋势可能是积极的，但在某些方面，我们也可能进入一个更加动荡的世界。
This paper reviews food (especially cereal) production trends and prospects for the world and its main regions. Despite fears to the contrary, in recent years we have seen continued progress toward better methods of feeding humanity. Sub-Saharan Africa is the sole major exception. Looking to the future, this paper argues that the continuation of recent cereal yield trends should be sufficient to cope with most of the demographically driven expansion of cereal demand that will occur until the year 2025, However, because of an increasing degree of mismatch between the expansion of regional demand and the potential for supply, there will be a major expansion of world cereal (and noncereal food) trade. Other consequences for global agriculture arising from demographic growth include the need to use water much more efficiently and an even greater dependence on nitrogen fertilizers (e.g., South Asia). Farming everywhere will depend more on information-intensive agricultural management procedures. Moreover, despite continued general progress, there still will be a significant number of undernourished people in 2025, Signs of heightened harvest variability, especially in North America, are of serious concern. Thus, although future general food trends are likely to be positive, in some respects we also could be entering a more volatile world.