Social contagion, adolescent sexual behavior, and pregnancy: a nonlinear dynamic EMOSA model.
Social contagion, adolescent sexual behavior, and pregnancy: a nonlinear dynamic EMOSA model.
复制标题
社会传染、青少年性行为和怀孕：非线性动态 EMOSA 模型。
DOI：
10.1037//0012-1649.34.5.1096
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Buster,M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rodgers,JL;Rowe,DC;Buster,M
Nonlinear dynamic modeling has useful developmental applications. The authors introduce this class of models and contrast them with traditional linear models. Epidemic models of the onset of social activities (EMOSA models) are a special case, motivated by JL Rodgers and DC Rowe's (1993) social contagion theory, which predict the spread of adolescent behaviors like smoking, drinking, delinquency, and sexuality. In this article, a biological outcome, pregnancy, is added to an earlier EMOSA sexuality model. Parameters quantify likelihood of pregnancy for girls of different sexuality statuses. Five different sexuality/pregnancy models compete to explain variance in national prevalence curves. One finding was that, in the context of the authors’ simplified model, adolescent girls have an approximately constant probability of pregnancy across age and time since virginity.
