A roadmap for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science for the next two decades and beyond
A roadmap for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science for the next two decades and beyond
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DOI：
10.1017/s0954102014000674
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Sutherland, W. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kennicutt, M. C., II;Chown, S. L.;Sutherland, W. J.
南极和南大洋科学对于了解自然变异、控制全球变化的过程以及人类在地球和气候系统中的作用至关重要。从今后的南极科学中获得新知识的潜力是巨大的。因此，国际南极社区走到一起，“扫描地平线”，以确定研究人员应该在未来二十年及以后回答的最优先科学问题。广泛协商是就南极科学最重要的未来方向形成集体国际观点的一项基本原则。从众多可能性中，地平线扫描通过结构化的辩论、讨论、修改和投票确定了80个关键科学问题。问题分为七个主题：i）南极大气和全球联系，ii）变暖世界中的南大洋和海冰，iii）冰盖和海平面，iv）动态地球，v）悬崖上的生命，vi）近地空间和更远的地方，以及vii）人类在南极洲的存在。要解决地平线扫描所确定的问题，需要创新的实验设计、新的技术应用、下一代现场和实验室方法的发明以及扩大的观测系统和网络。将需要采取无偏见、无污染的程序，以获取必要的空气、生物群、沉积物、岩石、冰和水样本。全年可持续进入南极洲和南大洋对于增加冬季测量至关重要。需要改进模型，以代表地球系统中的南极洲和南大洋，并提供有助于决策的空间和时间分辨率的预测。基于国际合作新模式的跨学科科学的协调组合将是至关重要的，因为没有科学家，计划或国家可以单独实现这些愿望。
Antarctic and Southern Ocean science is vital to understanding natural variability, the processes that govern global change and the role of humans in the Earth and climate system. The potential for new knowledge to be gained from future Antarctic science is substantial. Therefore, the international Antarctic community came together to 'scan the horizon' to identify the highest priority scientific questions that researchers should aspire to answer in the next two decades and beyond. Wide consultation was a fundamental principle for the development of a collective, international view of the most important future directions in Antarctic science. From the many possibilities, the horizon scan identified 80 key scientific questions through structured debate, discussion, revision and voting. Questions were clustered into seven topics: i) Antarctic atmosphere and global connections, ii) Southern Ocean and sea ice in a warming world, iii) ice sheet and sea level, iv) the dynamic Earth, v) life on the precipice, vi) near-Earth space and beyond, and vii) human presence in Antarctica. Answering the questions identified by the horizon scan will require innovative experimental designs, novel applications of technology, invention of next-generation field and laboratory approaches, and expanded observing systems and networks. Unbiased, non-contaminating procedures will be required to retrieve the requisite air, biota, sediment, rock, ice and water samples. Sustained year-round access to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean will be essential to increase winter-time measurements. Improved models are needed that represent Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the Earth System, and provide predictions at spatial and temporal resolutions useful for decision making. A co-ordinated portfolio of cross-disciplinary science, based on new models of international collaboration, will be essential as no scientist, programme or nation can realize these aspirations alone.