Temporal models for the episodic volcanism of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty quantification
Temporal models for the episodic volcanism of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty quantification
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DOI：
10.1002/2016jb013171
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发表时间：
2016-11-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Vitale, Stefano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bevilacqua, Andrea;Flandoli, Franco;Vitale, Stefano
在大规模的那不勒斯黄凝灰岩事件（类似于15 ka B. P.）之后，在Campi Flegrei破火山口（意大利）内和沿着边界发生了强烈的且大多数是爆炸性的火山活动。火山爆发的时间间隔很短，从几个世纪到几千年不等，并与持续数千年的平静期交替。通常，事件也发生在空间上，从而产生一组事件。这项研究有两个主要目标：（1）通过使用定量模型来描述地质记录中的不确定性;（2）根据不确定性评估，开发一个长期子域特定时间概率模型，用于描述破火山口的时空喷发行为。特别是，该研究采用了时空双随机非齐次泊松型模型，具有局部自激特征，能够生成与Campi Flegrei重建记录一致的事件聚类。结果允许的相似性和差异的三个时代的活动之间的评价，以及推导出的破火山口和它的能力，以产生集群的事件的喷发的基础率。时间概率模型也被用来调查的影响，最近的火山爆发的Monte Nuovo（公元1538年）在一个可能的重新激活的破火山口，并估计下一次喷发的时间在不同的火山和建模假设。
After the large-scale event of Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (similar to 15 ka B.P.), intense and mostly explosive volcanism has occurred within and along the boundaries of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Eruptions occurred closely spaced in time, over periods from a few centuries to a few millennia, and were alternated with periods of quiescence lasting up to several millennia. Often events also occurred closely in space, thus generating a cluster of events. This study had two main objectives: (1) to describe the uncertainty in the geologic record by using a quantitative model and (2) to develop, based on the uncertainty assessment, a long-term subdomain specific temporal probability model that describes the temporal and spatial eruptive behavior of the caldera. In particular, the study adopts a space-time doubly stochastic nonhomogeneous Poisson-type model with a local self-excitation feature able to generate clustering of events which are consistent with the reconstructed record of Campi Flegrei. Results allow the evaluation of similarities and differences between the three epochs of activity as well as to derive eruptive base rate of the caldera and its capacity to generate clusters of events. The temporal probability model is also used to investigate the effect of the most recent eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) in a possible reactivation of the caldera and to estimate the time to the next eruption under different volcanological and modeling assumptions.