Opinion: To stop the next pandemic, we need to unravel the origins of COVID-19
Opinion: To stop the next pandemic, we need to unravel the origins of COVID-19
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意见：为了阻止下一次大流行，我们需要解开 COVID-19 的起源
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
D. Relman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Relman
我们发现自己进入了我们一生中最具灾难性的全球卫生事件之一的十个月，令人不安的是，我们仍然不知道它是如何开始的。更令人不安的是，尽管这个问题至关重要，但调查严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 （SARS-CoV-2）病毒及其相关疾病2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）起源的努力却陷入了政治困境，缺乏证据的假设和断言，以及不完整的信息。
We find ourselves ten months into one of the most catastrophic global health events of our lifetime and, disturbingly, we still do not know how it began. What’s even more troubling is that despite the critical importance of this question, efforts to investigate the origins of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and of the associated disease, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), have become mired in politics, poorly supported assumptions and assertions, and incomplete information.
To avoid or mitigate the dire consequences of this and future pandemics (here, people in PPE bury a victim in Delhi, India in June), unraveling the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 will be essential—even though a definitive answer may be elusive, and an objective analysis means broaching some uncomfortable possibilities. Image credit: Shutterstock/PradeepGaurs.
SARS-CoV-2 is a betacoronavirus whose apparent closest relatives, RaTG13 and RmYN02, are reported to have been collected from bats in 2013 and 2019, respectively, in Yunnan Province, China (1). COVID-19 was first reported in December 2019 more than 1,000 miles away in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. Beyond these facts, the “origin story” is missing many key details, including a plausible and suitably detailed recent evolutionary history of the virus, the identity and provenance of its most recent ancestors, and surprisingly, the place, time, and mechanism of transmission of the first human infection. Even though a definitive answer may not be forthcoming, and even though an objective analysis requires addressing some uncomfortable possibilities, it is crucial that we pursue this question. Preventing the next pandemic depends on understanding the origins of this one.
There are several potential origin scenarios. First, SARS-CoV-2 may …
[↵][1]1Email: relman{at}stanford.edu.
[1]: #xref-corresp-1-1