Climate change leads to differential shifts in the timing of annual cycle stages in a migratory bird
Climate change leads to differential shifts in the timing of annual cycle stages in a migratory bird
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气候变化导致候鸟年度周期阶段时间的差异变化
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14006
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
M. Visser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Tomotani;H. P. van der Jeugd;P. Gienapp;Iván de la Hera;Jos Pilzecker;Corry Teichmann;M. Visser
许多物种因气候变化而导致的繁殖物候变化已得到充分记录，但在同一物种内，其他年度周期阶段（例如换毛、迁徙）相对于繁殖时间的变化却很少被研究。当阶段以不同的速率变化时，阶段之间的间隔可能会发生变化，从而导致重叠，并且由于每个阶段都需要精力，这些重叠可能会产生负面的健身后果。我们使用欧洲斑鹟（Ficedula hyperleuca）种群的长期数据来研究三个年度循环阶段的物候变化：春季迁徙（抵达日期）、繁殖（产卵和孵化日期）和繁殖后换羽的开始。我们发现，与换羽相比，繁殖时间有不同的进步（换羽进展更快），但抵达日期没有进步。为了了解这些差异变化，我们探索了哪些温度最能解释这些阶段时间的逐年变化，并表明它们对荷兰温度升高的反应不同，导致抵达和繁殖之间以及繁殖和换羽之间的间隔缩短。接下来，我们测试了这些缩短的间隔的健身效果。我们发现对窝数没有影响，但随着到达配种间隔（较早配种）的缩短，羽翼丰满的雏鸟被招募的可能性会增加。最后，标记-重捕获分析没有检测到缩短的时间间隔对成年存活率的影响。我们的结果表明，育种的进步为幼鸟的发育提供了更多的时间，从而增加了它们被招募的可能性。这可能会给年度周期的其他部分带来成本，但是，尽管间隔较短，但对成年人的生存没有影响。我们的研究结果表明，要充分了解气候变化的后果，有必要仔细观察不同的年度循环阶段，特别是对于具有复杂循环的生物体，例如候鸟。
Shifts in reproductive phenology due to climate change have been well documented in many species but how, within the same species, other annual cycle stages (e.g. moult, migration) shift relative to the timing of breeding has rarely been studied. When stages shift at different rates, the interval between stages may change resulting in overlaps, and as each stage is energetically demanding, these overlaps may have negative fitness consequences. We used long‐term data of a population of European pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to investigate phenological shifts in three annual cycle stages: spring migration (arrival dates), breeding (egg‐laying and hatching dates) and the onset of postbreeding moult. We found different advancements in the timing of breeding compared with moult (moult advances faster) and no advancement in arrival dates. To understand these differential shifts, we explored which temperatures best explain the year‐to‐year variation in the timing of these stages, and show that they respond differently to temperature increases in the Netherlands, causing the intervals between arrival and breeding and between breeding and moult to decrease. Next, we tested the fitness consequences of these shortened intervals. We found no effect on clutch size, but the probability of a fledged chick to recruit increased with a shorter arrival‐breeding interval (earlier breeding). Finally, mark–recapture analyses did not detect an effect of shortened intervals on adult survival. Our results suggest that the advancement of breeding allows more time for fledgling development, increasing their probability to recruit. This may incur costs to other parts of the annual cycle, but, despite the shorter intervals, there was no effect on adult survival. Our results show that to fully understand the consequences of climate change, it is necessary to look carefully at different annual cycle stages, especially for organisms with complex cycles, such as migratory birds.