Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0000940
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Scott, Thomas W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aldstadt, Jared;Koenraadt, Constantianus J. M.;Scott, Thomas W.
背景：埃及伊蚊（L.）是登革热的主要传播媒介，登革热是全球最重要的虫媒病毒感染。在有效的疫苗获得许可并严格管理之前，Ae。控制埃及伊蚊仍然是预防和减少登革热传播的主要工具。需要对病媒种群进行准确预测，以评估控制方法并制定有效的种群减少策略。艾。埃及伊蚊主要开发于人造储水容器。释放再捕获研究表明大多数成年伊蚊。埃及伊蚊不会长距离传播。因此，我们预计，与其他开发地点相对隔离的集装箱相比，开发地点密度高的区域中的集装箱更有可能成为产卵地点，并且更频繁地用作产卵地点。在考虑了各个容器的特征后，更频繁地用作产卵场所的容器可能会持续且以更高的速度产生成年蚊子。到目前为止，大多数关于 Ae 的研究。埃及伊蚊种群忽略了幼虫发育地点的空间密度。方法：2004年至2007年在泰国甘烹碧农村地区进行了蛹调查。总共使用了 84,840 个盛水容器样本来估计模型参数。回归模型用于评估幼虫发育地点密度、自来水的获取和季节变化对容器生产力的影响。采用变系数模型来解释容器类型之间生产率的巨大差异。称为栅栏模型的两部分建模结构解释了蛹种群计数中存在的大量零和过度分散。研究结果：环境中合适的幼虫发育地点的数量及其密度是白伊蚊分布和丰度的主要决定因素。埃及伊蛹。随着栖息地密度的增加，大多数容器类型的生产力显着增加。考虑到开发地点密度的生态方法适合预测AE。埃及人口水平和制定有效的病媒控制计划。
Background: Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites.Methodology: Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts.Findings: The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control programs.