A model to determine workforce needs for endocrinologists in the United States until 2020
A model to determine workforce needs for endocrinologists in the United States until 2020
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DOI：
10.1210/jc.2002-021288
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发表时间：
2003-05-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Hogan, PF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rizza, RA;Vigersky, RA;Hogan, PF
本研究的目的是确定1999年至2020年美国内分泌、糖尿病和代谢专业的劳动力需求，并构建了一个可能影响未来20年内内分泌医生供需平衡的因素的交互模型。该模型使用了来自广泛来源的数据，并在来自内分泌学家赞助组织的专家小组的指导下开发。我们确定了美国劳动力中内分泌学家的当前和预测数量和人口统计数据，以及1999年至2020年的供需平衡。1999年有3，623名成年内分泌学家，其中2，389名（66%）在办公室执业。他们的中位年龄为49岁。在1990年代，内分泌科医生（特别是糖尿病医生）的门诊量和服务量都大幅度增加。目前，内分泌科医生初次预约的等待时间比其他医生要长。与一个平衡的，基本上封闭的工作人员健康维护组织相比，目前全国内分泌学家的供应估计比需求低12%。进入市场的内分泌学家人数在过去5年中持续下降，从1995年的200人下降到1999年的171人。即使这种下降趋势突然停止，该模型预测，从现在到2020年，需求将超过供应。虽然这一差距缩小，从2000年到2008年，由于预期的增长管理保健，它扩大之后，由于人口和内分泌劳动力的老龄化。列入其他因素，如预计的真实的收入增长和与年龄有关的内分泌失调的发病率增加（例如，G.糖尿病和骨质疏松症）进一步加重了这种缺陷。如果进入劳动力市场的内分泌医生人数保持在1999年的水平，那么从现在到2020年，成人内分泌医生的需求将继续超过供应，并且从2010年起，差距将逐渐扩大。目前的分析表明，进入劳动力市场的内分泌学家人数将不足以满足未来的需求。这些数据表明，应采取措施，制止培训中的内分泌学家数量持续下降，并应考虑采取旨在增加未来几年内分泌学家数量的行动。
The objective of this study was to define the workforce needs for the specialty of endocrinology, diabetes, and metabolism in the United States between 1999 and 2020.An interactive model of factors likely to influence the balance between the supply and demand of endocrinologists during the next 20 yr was constructed. The model used data from a wide range of sources and was developed under the guidance of a panel of experts derived from sponsoring organizations of endocrinologists. We determined current and projected numbers and demographics of endocrinologists in the United States workforce and the anticipated balance between supply and demand from 1999 to 2020. There were 3,623 adult endocrinologists in the workforce in 1999, of which 2,389 (66%) were in office-based practice. Their median age was 49 yr. Both total office visits and services performed by endocrinologists ( particularly for diabetes) increased substantially during the 1990s. Waiting time for an initial appointment is presently longer for endocrinologists than for other physicians. Compared with a balanced, largely closed-staff health maintenance organization, the current national supply of endocrinologists is estimated to be 12% lower than demand. The number of endocrinologists entering the market has continuously fallen over the previous 5 yr, from 200 in 1995 to 171 in 1999. Even if this downward trend were abruptly stopped, the model predicts that demand will exceed supply from now until 2020. Whereas this gap narrows from 2000 to 2008 due to projected growth of managed care, it widens thereafter due to the aging of both the population and the endocrine workforce. Inclusion of other factors such as projected real income growth and increased prevalence of age-related endocrine disorders ( e. g. diabetes and osteoporosis) further accentuates the deficit. If the number of endocrinologists entering the workforce remains at 1999 levels, demand will continue to exceed supply from now through 2020 for adult endocrinologists, and the gap will widen progressively from 2010 onward. The present analysis indicates that the number of endocrinologists entering the workforce will not be sufficient to meet future demand. These data suggest that steps should be taken to stop the ongoing decline in the number of endocrinologists in training and consideration should be given to actions designed to increase the number of endocrinologists in practice in the years ahead.