Sensitivity of Risk-Based Maintenance Planning of Offshore Wind Turbine Farms

Sensitivity of Risk-Based Maintenance Planning of Offshore Wind Turbine Farms
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DOI：
10.3390/en10040505
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发表时间：
2017-04
期刊：
Energies
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Simon Ambühl;J. Sørensen
Simon Ambühl;J. Sørensen
中科院分区：
工程技术4区
文献类型：
--
作者：
Simon Ambühl;J. Sørensen

文献摘要

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检查和维护费用占海上风力涡轮机能源成本的很大一部分。基于风险的维护计划方法是优化维护和检查行动并降低总维护费用的强大工具。基于风险的规划基于许多输入参数，这些参数在现实中往往不完全已知。本文将评估这种不完整的知识的成本影响的基础上的案例研究以下基于风险的维护规划。敏感性研究的重点是天气预报的不确定性、对现场所需维修时间的不完全了解以及用于接近损坏的风力涡轮机的船只和直升机的操作范围的不确定性。通过运行原油蒙特卡罗模拟来估计成本节约潜力。此外，还实施了纠正性和预防性（定期和基于条件的）维护策略。所考虑的案例研究的重点是一个风力发电场，由10个6兆瓦的涡轮机放置在30公里的丹麦北海海岸。结果表明，在考虑基于风险的决策不确定性时，天气预报是导致维护费用增加的不确定性来源。考虑到与基于风险的维护规划直接相关的不确定性，整体维护费用增加了70%至140%。
Inspection and maintenance expenses cover a considerable part of the cost of energy from offshore wind turbines. Risk-based maintenance planning approaches are a powerful tool to optimize maintenance and inspection actions and decrease the total maintenance expenses. Risk-based planning is based on many input parameters, which are in reality often not completely known. This paper will assess the cost impact of this incomplete knowledge based on a case study following risk-based maintenance planning. The sensitivity study focuses on weather forecast uncertainties, incomplete knowledge about the needed repair time on the site as well as uncertainties about the operational range of the boat and helicopter used to access the broken wind turbine. The cost saving potential is estimated by running Crude Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition-based) maintenance strategies are implemented. The considered case study focuses on a wind farm consisting of ten 6 MW turbines placed 30 km off the Danish North Sea coast. The results show that the weather forecast is the uncertainty source dominating the maintenance expenses increase when considering risk-based decision-making uncertainties. The overall maintenance expenses increased by 70% to 140% when considering uncertainties directly related with risk-based maintenance planning.