Trends in Mortality Differentials and Life Expectancy for Male Social Security-Covered Workers, by Socieoeconomic Status
Trends in Mortality Differentials and Life Expectancy for Male Social Security-Covered Workers, by Socieoeconomic Status
复制标题
按社会经济地位划分的受社会保障的男性工人的死亡率差异和预期寿命趋势
作者：
H. Waldron
这篇文章按平均相对收入分析了60岁或60岁以上男性工人的死亡率差异和预期寿命的趋势。由于平均相对收入是在收入分布的顶峰(年龄在45岁至55岁之间)计算的，因此人们认为它们可以粗略地反映社会经济地位。在这项分析中回顾的历史文献通常表明，随着时间的推移，按社会经济地位划分的死亡率差异并不是恒定的。在这项研究中，时间趋势是通过观察平均相对收入的死亡率差异在大约涵盖20世纪前三分之一的连续出生队列的29年中发生的变化来检验的。从1972年到2001年，观察到这些出生队列的死亡年龄在60-89岁之间，大约包括20世纪最后三分之一的时间。大范围和大跨度的死亡观察允许在按社会经济地位估计死亡率差异时按年龄和出生年龄组进行分类。这项研究发现，随着时间的推移，参加社会保障的男性工人的社会经济地位在死亡率改善方面的水平和变化率都存在差异。平均相对收入(衡量为个人在45岁至55岁之间的相对平均正收入)被用作成年人社会经济地位的替代指标。总体而言，对于1912-1941年的出生队列(或1972-2001年60-89岁的死亡)，平均相对收入分布的上半部分经历了比下半部分更快的死亡率改善。具体地说，1941年出生的男性员工，如果他们的平均相对收入在收入分布的上半部分，并且活到60岁，他们预计会比收入分布在后半部分的同龄人多活5.8年。相比之下，在1912年出生的、活到60岁的参加社会保障的男性劳动者中，收入分布最高的人预计只会比收入分布最低的人多活1.2年。本文中的预期寿命估计代表了在一组假设下的一种可能结果。这些预测不应被视为对未来的准确描述。具体地说，本研究采用了一种简单的投影法，即假设差异遵循20世纪最后30年观察到的21世纪前30年的模式。这一假设缺乏理论依据，因为过去30年观察到的差距扩大的原因尚未确定。一方面，如果过去30年观察到的按出生年份扩大死亡率差异的趋势不继续下去，本分析中使用的预测方法可能会导致高估社会经济群体之间未来预期寿命的差异。另一方面，如果死亡率差异不像过去观察到的那样按年龄缩小，所使用的预测方法可能会导致低估60岁或60岁以上社会经济群体之间的预期寿命差异。
This article presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security-covered workers aged 60 or older. Because average relative earnings are measured at the peak of the earnings distribution (ages 45-55), it is assumed that they act as a rough proxy for socioeconomic status. The historical literature reviewed in this analysis generally indicates that mortality differentials by socioeconomic status have not been constant over time. For this study, time trends are examined by observing how mortality differentials by average relative earnings have been changing over 29 years of successive birth cohorts that encompass roughly the first third of the 20th century. Deaths for these birth cohorts are observed at ages 60-89 from 1972 through 2001, encompassing roughly the last third of the 20th century. The large size and long span of death observations allow for disaggregation by age and year-of-birth groups in the estimation of mortality differentials by socioeconomic status. This study finds a difference in both the level and the rate of change in mortality improvement over time by socioeconomic status for male Social Security-covered workers. Average relative earnings (measured as the relative average positive earnings of an individual between ages 45 and 55) are used as a proxy for adult socioeconomic status. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912-1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972-2001 at ages 60-89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security-covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half. In contrast, among male Social Security-covered workers born in 1912 who survived to age 60, those in the top half of the earnings distribution would be expected to live only 1.2 years more than those in the bottom half. The life expectancy estimates in this article represent one possible outcome under one set of assumptions. These projections should not be regarded as an accurate depiction of the future. Specifically, this study adopts a simple projection method in which differentials are assumed to follow the pattern observed over the last 30 years of the 20th century for the first 30 years of the 21st century. This assumption lacks theoretical underpinnings because the causes of the widening differentials observed over the past 30 years have not been determined. On the one hand, if the trend of widening mortality differentials by year of birth observed over the past 30 years does not continue, the projection method used in this analysis could lead to an overestimation of future differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups. On the other hand, if mortality differentials do not narrow by age as observed in the past, the projection method used could lead to an underestimation of the differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups aged 60 or older.