A Markov Chain Model for Mental Health Interventions.
A Markov Chain Model for Mental Health Interventions.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph20043525
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发表时间：
2023-02-16
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
O'Leary, Marshall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Claudio, David;Moyce, Sally;Albano, Tyler;Ibe, Ekeoma;Miller, Nick;O'Leary, Marshall
不良的心理健康状况影响着全世界近十亿人，如果不加以治疗，可能会导致自杀。不幸的是，耻辱和缺乏精神卫生保健提供者是获得所需护理的障碍。我们开发了一个马尔可夫链模型来确定减少耻辱或增加可用资源是否可以改善心理健康结果。我们绘制了精神卫生保健连续体中的潜在步骤，并给出了两个离散的结果：好转或自杀。使用马尔可夫链模型，我们根据寻求帮助或专业资源可用性的预计增加来计算每个结果的概率。如果心理健康问题意识提高 12%，则自杀率会降低 0.39%。获得专业帮助的机会增加 12%，自杀率下降 0.47%。我们的结果表明，扩大获得专业服务的机会对降低自杀率的影响大于提高意识。任何对意识或获取途径的干预都会对降低自杀率产生积极影响。然而，增加接触机会会导致自杀率更高的降低。我们在提高认识方面取得了进展。意识活动有助于提高对心理健康需求的认识。然而，集中精力增加获得护理的机会可能会对降低自杀率产生更大的影响。
Poor mental health affects nearly one billion people worldwide and can end in suicide if not treated. Unfortunately, stigma and a lack of mental healthcare providers are barriers to receiving needed care. We developed a Markov chain model to determine whether decreasing stigma or increasing available resources improves mental health outcomes. We mapped potential steps in the mental health care continuum with two discrete outcomes: getting better or committing suicide. Using a Markov chain model, we calculated probabilities of each outcome based on projected increases in seeking help or availability of professional resources. Modeling for a 12% increase in awareness of mental health concerns yielded a 0.39% reduction in suicide. A 12% increase in access to professional help yielded a 0.47% reduction in suicide rate. Our results show that expanding access to professional services has a higher impact on reducing suicide rates than creating awareness. Any intervention towards awareness or access positively impacts reducing suicide rates. However, increased access results in a higher reduction in suicide rates. We have made progress in increasing awareness. Awareness campaigns help to increase recognition of mental health needs. However, focusing efforts on increasing access to care may have a higher impact on reducing suicide rates.