RCP 8.5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
RCP 8.5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y
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发表时间：
2011-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Rafaj, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Riahi, Keywan;Rao, Shilpa;Rafaj, Peter
本文总结了RCP8.5场景的主要特征。RCP8.5将人口众多和收入增长相对缓慢的假设与技术变革和能源密集度改善的适度速度相结合，在没有气候变化政策的情况下，长期导致高能源需求和温室气体排放。因此，与代表性浓度路径（RCP）的全部集合相比，RCP 8.5对应于温室气体排放量最高的路径。利用IIASA综合评估框架和MESSAGE模型开发RCP 8.5，本文重点介绍了与早期情景相比的两个重要扩展：1）空间显式空气污染预测的开发，以及2）土地利用和土地覆盖变化预测的增强。此外，我们还探索了使用RCP8.5作为基线的情景变量，并假设不同程度的温室气体减排政策以减少辐射强迫。基于我们的建模框架，我们发现在技术上可以将RCP 8.5的强迫限制在与其他RCP相当的较低水平（2.6至6 W/m（2））。我们的情景分析进一步表明，气候政策引起的全球能源供应和需求的变化可能会导致其他政策优先事项，如当地的空气污染显着的共同利益。
This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m(2)). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution.