The effects of control on betting: Paradoxical betting on items of high confidence with low value
The effects of control on betting: Paradoxical betting on items of high confidence with low value
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DOI：
10.1037/0278-7393.29.4.598
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发表时间：
2003-07-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Goodie, AS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Goodie, AS
传统的决策理论强调了可能结果的概率和价值，但是决策也可能受感知控制的影响，而控制的控制性则定义为概率可变性。在3个实验中，向参与者押注了自己的一般知识问题的答案，这些问题的特征是控制。如果参与者报告的信心得到了很好的校准，那么如果参与者过于自信，但在参与者过分自信时不利，这些赌注是公平的。 BET接受是一种陡峭，线性的置信功能，称为自相矛盾的博彩。这种模式通常与BET的价值（认为是平均结果或主观效用）相反，并且在实验3中对明显随机事件的匹配的BET比匹配的赌注更陡峭。很容易将其纳入一些现有的决策加权模型中。
Traditional decision theories emphasize the probabilities and values of possible outcomes, but decisions may also be influenced by perceived control, with control defined as probability alterability. In 3 experiments, participants were offered bets on their own answers to general knowledge questions, bets that are characterized by control. The bets were fair if participants' reported confidence was well calibrated, positively valued if participants were underconfident, but unfavorable when participants were overconfident. Bet acceptance was a steep, linear, increasing function of confidence that is termed paradoxical betting. This pattern was generally contrary to the value of bets (considered either as average outcome or as subjective utility) and was steeper in slope than matched bets on apparently random events in Experiment 3. The author argues that control is a fundamental determinant of decision making that is readily incorporated in some existing models of decision weighting.