A deviation bar chart for detecting dengue outbreaks in Puerto Rico
A deviation bar chart for detecting dengue outbreaks in Puerto Rico
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.89.3.374
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发表时间：
1999-03-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Casta-Vélez, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rigau-Pérez, JG;Millard, PS;Casta-Vélez, A
目标。对疾病控制和预防中心的偏差条形图(公共卫生监测统计软件)和基于实验室的监测数据进行了评估，以了解它们在检测燃料作物登革热暴发方面的有效性。登革热发病率的显著增加被定义为疑似病例超过2例以上，超过1989年至1993年4月至6月(季节性发病率最低的时期)所有4周期间的平均值。暴发定义为报告的年累计登革热发病率超过每1000人3人。对1994年数据的回顾应用表明，该系统与以前的分析是一致的。在1995年和1996年，在9月第一周前连续两周或以上报告疫情显著增加的直辖市中，分别有36.4%和27.3%的城市暴发疫情，而在没有明显增长的城镇中，这一比例分别为9.0%(1995年，P=0.042)和6.0%(1996年，P=0.054)。该系统对城市分类的敏感性接近40%，特异性接近，分类准确率接近84%。这种方法为登革热控制工作提供了一个基于统计的、视觉上引人注目的、特定的和及时的信号。
Objectives. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deviation bar chart (Statistical Software for Public Health Surveillance) and laboratory-based surveillance data were evaluated for their utility in detecting dengue outbreaks in Fuel-to Rico.Methods. A significant increase in dengue incidence was defined as an excess of suspected cases of more than 2 SDs beyond the mean for all 4-week periods from April through June (the period of lowest seasonal incidence), 1989 through 1993. An outbreak was defined as a cumulative annual rate of reported dengue greater than 3 per 1000 population.Results. Retrospective application of;he system to 1994 data showed agreement with previous analyses. In 1995 and 1996, 36.4% and 27.3%, respectively, of municipalities with a significant increase in reports for 2 or more consecutive weeks before the first week of September had an outbreak, compared with 9.0% (in 1995, P = .042) and 6.0% (in 1996, P = .054) of towns without a significant increase. The system showed sensitivity near 40%, specificity near 89%, and accuracy in classifying municipalities near 84%.Conclusions. This method provides a statistically based, visually striking, specific, and timely signal for dengue control efforts.