Quantitative risk assessment of a hydrogen refueling station by using a dynamic physical model based on multi-physics system-level modeling
Quantitative risk assessment of a hydrogen refueling station by using a dynamic physical model based on multi-physics system-level modeling
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基于多物理系统级建模的动态物理模型对加氢站进行定量风险评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.09.125
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
7.2
通讯作者：
Miyake Atsumi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Suzuki Tomoya;Kawatsu Kaname;Shiota Kento;Izato Yu-ichiro;Komori Masahiro;Sato Koichi;Takai Yasuyuki;Ninomiya Takayuki;Miyake Atsumi
在全球范围内的事故数据库中，已经报告了大量的HRS事故;因此，许多研究人员对HRS进行了定量风险评估（QRA），以便在确定安全距离或风险缓解措施时做出风险知情的决策。日本的东京等都市地区的高铁站，由于位于高楼林立、人口密度高的拥挤区域，因此站区相对狭窄。然而，QRA通常适用于大型工厂，如核电厂或化工厂;因此，相对较小的工厂或设施，如HRS，尚未被视为QRA对象。因此，有必要进行详细的QRA和风险分析，并减少相对较小的工厂或装置的应用不确定性。我们采用了基于模型的方法进行风险评估的HRS过程建模，使用多物理系统级建模和模拟的目标系统，使用Modelica-一个基于方程的，面向对象的建模语言，允许因果建模的复杂的网络物理系统。本研究的主要目的是进行QRA的HRS基于多物理系统级建模。首先，我们使用基本物理方程对HRS组件和组件之间的物理关系进行建模。然后，我们阐明了一个QRA的基础上构建的模型。使用所构建的模型计算了由于泄漏位置和模型参数的动态行为引起的泄漏率的差异。最后，我们估计了所有情况下的个体风险，并将基于构建的模型（包括氢燃料动态行为）的风险轮廓与基于传统模型的风险轮廓进行比较。这些结果表明，它是可能的，以评估车站附近的风险，通过评估获得的场景信息的基础上，车站边界周围的风险是否是可以接受的。
Numerous accidents in HRSs have been reported worldwide in accident databases; therefore, many researchers have performed quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of HRSs to enable risk-informed decision making in determining the safety distances or risk mitigation measures. The HRSs, located in urban areas such as Tokyo in Japan, are situated in congested areas with tall buildings and high population density; thus, they have relatively narrow station areas. However, the QRAs are generally suitable for large plants such as nuclear power plants or chemical plants; therefore, relatively small plants or installations, such as HRSs, have not yet been considered as QRA objects. Hence, it is necessary to conduct detailed QRAs with risk analyses and reduce the applied uncertainties for relatively small plants or installations. We applied a model-based approach of risk assessment to model the HRS process using multi-physics system-level modeling and simulated a target system using Modelica—an equation-based, object-oriented modeling language that allows acausal modeling of complex cyber-physical systems The primary aim of this study was to conduct a QRA of an HRS based on multi-physics system-level modeling. First, we modeled the HRS components and physical relationships between the components using basic physical equations. Then, we elucidate a QRA based on the constructed model. The difference in the leakage rates due to the leak positions and dynamic behavior of the model parameters were calculated using the constructed model. Finally, we estimated the individual risks of all the scenarios and compared the resulting risk contours based on the constructed model that includes the hydrogen-fuel dynamic behavior with those based on the traditional model. These results indicate that it is possible to assess whether the risks around the station boundary are acceptable based on the scenario information obtained by evaluating the risks near the station.
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