The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.021
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Soderbergh, Bengt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aleklett, Kjell;Hook, Mikael;Soderbergh, Bengt
国际能源署《2008年世界能源展望》（WEO 2008）中对未来全球石油产量的评估分为6个部分; 4个部分与原油有关，1个部分与非常规石油有关，最后一个部分是天然气液体（NGL）。使用生产参数，可采资源消耗率，我们分析了四种原油馏分，发现2030年75 Mb/d的原油产量预测似乎被严重夸大，更有可能在55 Mb/d的范围内。此外，对其他馏分的分析强烈表明，产量低于预期水平。总的来说，我们的分析指出，2030年世界石油供应量为7500万桶/日，比IEA预测的低约2600万桶/日。经济增长与能源使用之间的联系是IEA目前建模方法的基础。由于我们的预测认为全球石油产量大幅增加的可能性很小，我们的研究结果表明，《2008年世界经济展望》所针对的“政策制定者、投资者和最终用户”应该重新考虑他们未来的经济增长计划。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA's present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the "policy makers, investors and end users" to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth, The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.