What Explains Japan's Persistent Deflation?
What Explains Japan's Persistent Deflation?
复制标题
日本持续通货紧缩的原因是什么？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Carlos M. Carvalho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. ferrero;Carlos M. Carvalho
虽然日本80年代后期的资产价格暴跌可以解释随后的通货紧缩压力，但很难将日本自90年代中期以来面临的持续通货紧缩归因于最初的冲击。我们认为，在调整货币政策时未能考虑到人口趋势可能会解释日本持续的通货紧缩。人口结构的转变，特别是预期寿命的延长，对真实的利率造成了下行压力。如果货币政策规则没有将这种影响内在化，最终可能会限制性太强，导致均衡状态下的通货紧缩。我们将一个动态的、具有生命周期结构的货币经济的程式化模型与日本的数据进行了校准，发现它非常好地解释了自90年代初以来通货膨胀和其他宏观经济变量的低频发展。我们还提供了证据表明，通货紧缩在某种程度上是可预测的-模型的含义-并探讨在何种程度上的差异，在人口结构的转变有助于解释横截面的差异，在真实的利率的路径在主要发达经济体。
While the asset price collapse of the late 80s in Japan might explain the disinflationary pressures that followed, it is hard to attribute the persistent deflation that the country has faced since the mid 90s to that initial shock. We argue that a failure to account for demographic trends when calibrating monetary policy might explain Japan's persistent deflation. The demographic transition, and in particular the increase in life expectancy, puts downward pressure on the real interest rate. Monetary policy rules that do not internalize this effect may end up being to restrictive, and lead to deflation in equilibrium. We calibrate a stylized model of a dynamic, monetary economy with a life-cycle structure to japanese data, and find that it accounts remarkably well for the low frequency developments in inflation and other macroeconomic variables since the early 90s. We also provide evidence that deflation was somewhat predictable -- an implication of the model -- and explore to what extent differences in the demographic transition help explain cross-sectional differences in the path of real interest rates across major developed economies.