The ice regime of Lake Baikal from historical and satellite data:: Relationship to air temperature, dynamical, and other factors
The ice regime of Lake Baikal from historical and satellite data:: Relationship to air temperature, dynamical, and other factors
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DOI：
10.4319/lo.2007.52.3.1268
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Remy, Frederique
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kouraev, Alexei V.;Semovski, Sergei V.;Remy, Frederique
本文综述了贝加尔湖冰盖研究的历史，并基于卫星数据和历史数据详细描述了贝加尔湖冰情的时空变化。我们利用1992-2004年贝加尔湖北部、中部和南部的历史数据和最近的卫星测高和辐射观测数据分析了冰情的长期演变。这些数据显示，最近（自20世纪90年代以来）冬天有变冷的趋势，形成冰的时间更早，破裂冰的时间更晚，冰的持续时间也更长。这些观测结果与气温变率的长周期周期（20世纪70年代至90年代变暖，之后有一个降温阶段）相一致。通过将气象站气温数据与ERA-40再分析数据进行比较，发现ERA-40数据可用于贝加尔湖气温的季节和年际变化。ERA-40数据还表明，最近的趋势是冬季变冷，夏季变暖。我们进一步分析了冰态如何受到气温的影响，以及这种影响如何受到动力（风场、洋流）和其他（测深、降水等）因素的影响。我们估计了气温参数与冰事件时间（冰形成和快速冰持续时间）之间的关系，并表明气温对冰状态的影响最大。动力和其他因素干扰热影响，与仅考虑气温影响的关系相比，导致冰形成日期和冰持续时间的变化。
We give an overview of the history of the ice cover studies in Lake Baikal and a detailed description of the temporal and spatial variability of Lake Baikal ice conditions based on satellite and historical data. We analyze the long-term evolution of ice conditions using historical data and recent observations from satellite altimetry and radiometry for 1992-2004 for northern, middle, and southern Baikal. These data show a recent (since the 1990s) tendency for colder winters, with earlier ice formation, later ice break-up, and ice duration increase. These observations are in agreement with the long-period cycles of air temperature variability (warming between the 1970s and 1990s, with a cooling phase afterwards). We then compare air temperature data from meteorological stations to ERA-40 reanalysis and suggest that ERA-40 data can be used to assess seasonal and interannual changes of air temperature for Lake Baikal. The ERA-40 data also indicate a recent tendency for colder winters and for warmer summers. We further analyze how the ice regime is influenced by air temperature and how this influence is affected by dynamic (wind field, currents) and other (bathymetry, precipitation, etc.) factors. We estimate the relationship between air temperature parameters and the timing of ice events (ice formation and fast ice duration) and show that air temperature has the strongest effect on the ice regime. Dynamic and other factors interfere with the thermal influence, resulting in a change of ice formation dates and ice duration compared to the relationship that takes into account only the influence of air temperature.