The influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza activity in China
The influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza activity in China
复制标题
东亚季风对我国季节性流感活动时空格局的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157024
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Yu Hao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shuwen Zhang;Zhaobin Sun;Juan He;Ziming Li;Ling Han;Shang Jing;Yu Hao
以往的研究广泛研究了人类流感感染的季节性以及不同地区特定气候因素的影响。然而，人们对季风的影响了解有限。本研究采用广义加性模型，结合中国大陆月监测数据，探讨东亚季风对中国季节性流感时空格局的影响。结果表明，中国北方有2个流感活跃期，南方有3个流感活跃期。研究发现，东亚夏季风（EASM）向北推进影响了中国南部和北部夏季流感的时空格局。在年际尺度上，EASM对流感活动的南北反向效应主要是由于EASM对湿度和降水的反向效应。在年尺度上，华南地区的流感活动性在夏季逐渐达到最大值，而EASM向北推进加剧了夏季的活动性。此外，中国冬季流行与东亚冬季风（EAWM）影响下的低温和低湿有关。过渡期的活跃期与东亚季风与东亚季风过渡期影响下的较大快速气温变化有关。尽管发病延迟且不稳定，但受东亚季风影响的气候条件是流感活动的潜在关键驱动因素之一。•中国不同的流感季节性模式与3月份的疫情一致。•3月份的疫情与大多数地区的快速温度变化有关。•夏季流感发病风险在相对湿度高时增加。•东亚季风强度对中国北部和南部的流感活动和湿度有相反的影响。
Previous research has extensively studied the seasonalities of human influenza infections and the effect of specific climatic factors in different regions. However, there is limited understanding of the influences of monsoons. This study applied generalized additive model with monthly surveillance data from mainland China to explore the influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza in China. The results suggested two influenza active periods in northern China and three active periods in southern China. The study found that the northerly advancement of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) influences the summer influenza spatio-temporal patterns in both southern and northern China. At the interannual scale, the north-south converse effect of EASM on influenza activity is mainly due to the converse effect of EASM on humidity and precipitation. Within the annual scale, influenza activity in southern China gradually reaches its maximum during the summer exacerbated by the northerly advancement of EASM. Furthermore, the winter epidemic in China is related to the low temperature and humidity influenced by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Moreover, the active period in transition season is related partially to the large rapid temperature change influenced by the transition of EAWM and EASM. Despite the delayed onset and instability, the climatic condition influenced by the East Asian Monsoon is one of the potential key drivers of influenza activity. • Diverse influenza seasonal patterns in China are consistent in the March epidemic. • The March epidemic is associated with rapid temperature changes in most regions. • The risk of summer influenza incidence increases when relative humidity is high. • EASM intensity has a converse effect on influenza activity and humidity in the northern and southern China.