A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management: A study for the Lake Erhai Basin
A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management: A study for the Lake Erhai Basin
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DOI：
10.1006/jema.2000.0400
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发表时间：
2001-01-01
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Yin, YY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo, HC;Liu, L;Yin, YY
近年来，与洱海流域社会经济快速发展相关的水质恶化问题，中国越来越受到公众和政府的关注。为实现区域可持续发展，需要对流域环境管理系统进行有效的规划。为支持这一规划任务，建立了环境系统动力学模型ErhaiSD。ErhaiSD由动态模拟模型组成，这些模型明确考虑管理系统中交互的信息反馈。这种模型能够将部件级知识综合到集成级别的系统行为仿真中。此功能在分析和建议策略决策时非常有用。对于研究案例，动态地检查了15年时间框架内许多系统组件之间的相互作用。考虑了四种规划方案。基本运行是基于这样一种假设，即现有的人类活动模式将在整个规划范围内占主导地位，其他备选方案是基于以前的规划研究。通过开发的模拟系统，分析了各种面源对西洱湖富营养化问题的贡献，以及工业活动和污水处理工艺对西洱河污染问题的影响。这项工作提请注意该系统环境和社会经济目标的不同替代办法的影响。建模结果直接用于模拟和评估各种决策行为及其动态后果，并回答诸如“我应该做什么？”、“如果我做了呢？”之类的问题。和‘预期的后果是什么？’(C)2001年。学术出版社。
In recent years, water-quality deterioration associated with rapid socio-economic development in the Lake Erhai Basin, China, has acquired more and more attention from the public and the government. An effective planning for the basin's environmental management system is desired for sustainable regional development In this study, an environmental system dynamics model, named ErhaiSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. The ErhaiSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behaviour simulation at an integrated level. This capability is very useful in analyzing and recommending policy decisions. For the study case, interactions among a umber of system components within a time frame of 15 years are examined dynamically. Four planning alternatives are considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous planning studies. The contributions of various nonpoint pollution sources to the lake's eutrophication problems, and the effects of industrial activities and wastewater treatment processes on pollution problems in the Xier River are analyzed through the developed modeling system. The exercise draws attention to the implications of different alternatives to the system's environmental and socio-economic objectives. The modeling results are directly useful for simulating and evaluating a variety of decision actions and their dynamic consequences, and answering questions such as 'What should I do?', 'What if I do?' and 'What are the expected consequences?'. (C) 2001. Academic Press.