Twentieth-century Azores High expansion unprecedented in the past 1,200 years
Twentieth-century Azores High expansion unprecedented in the past 1,200 years
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DOI：
10.1038/s41561-022-00971-w
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发表时间：
2022-07-04
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Polyak, Victor J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cresswell-Clay, Nathaniel;Ummenhofer, Caroline C.;Polyak, Victor J.
根据过去一千年的气候模拟和降水代理记录，北大西洋上的亚速尔高地由于人为气候变化而扩大，破坏了西欧的降水模式。亚速尔高压是北大西洋上空一个持续存在的大气高压脊，它被反气旋风所包围，这些风引导着降雨天气系统，调节着海洋水汽向欧洲的输送。因此，亚速尔高地的面积范围影响了整个西欧的降水，特别是在冬季。在这里，我们使用观测和集合气候模式模拟表明，与前工业时代相比，工业时代（自1850年以来）冬季出现极大亚速尔高压的情况明显更为常见，导致地中海西部包括伊比利亚半岛出现异常干燥状况。对过去一千年的模拟表明，在过去一千年（自公元850年以来），亚速尔高地在工业时代的扩张是前所未有的，这与来自葡萄牙的降水代用证据相一致。亚速尔高膨胀在1850年后出现，并在20世纪加强，与人为驱动的变暖相一致。
The Azores High over the North Atlantic has expanded due to anthropogenic climate change, disrupting precipitation patterns in western Europe, according to climate modelling and precipitation proxy records spanning the past millennium.The Azores High is a persistent atmospheric high-pressure ridge over the North Atlantic surrounded by anticyclonic winds that steer rain-bearing weather systems and modulate the oceanic moisture transport to Europe. The areal extent of the Azores High thereby affects precipitation across western Europe, especially during winter. Here we use observations and ensemble climate model simulations to show that winters with an extremely large Azores High are significantly more common in the industrial era (since ce 1850) than in pre-industrial times, resulting in anomalously dry conditions across the western Mediterranean, including the Iberian Peninsula. Simulations of the past millennium indicate that the industrial-era expansion of the Azores High is unprecedented throughout the past millennium (since ce 850), consistent with precipitation proxy evidence from Portugal. Azores High expansion emerges after ce 1850 and strengthens into the twentieth century, consistent with anthropogenically driven warming.