Forecasting Distribution of Body Mass Index in the United States: Is There More Room for Growth?
Forecasting Distribution of Body Mass Index in the United States: Is There More Room for Growth?
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DOI：
10.1177/0272989x09351749
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发表时间：
2010-05-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Basu, Anirban
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Basu, Anirban
背景许多关于肥胖的文献都一致地记录了过去20年来体重的空前增加。较少关注的是未来预测的人口分布的身体质量指数（BMI）。Objective.预测2004-2014年期间美国（US）儿童（6-17岁）和成人（>17岁）的BMI分布（按年龄组、性别和种族）。方法.分析医疗支出小组调查数据（2001-2002年和2004-2005年），以估计和比较儿童和成人BMI类别的1年过渡。使用概率人口水平模拟模型预测2004-2014年的肥胖分布，并使用2005-2006年国家健康和营养检查调查的患病率数据进行验证。结果在2004-2005年期间，每个体重指数类别中的大多数成年人在一年后仍保持在同一类别，这些估计数与2001-2002年的相应估计数没有显著差异。在儿童中，2004-2005年期间体重指数类别内的稳定性较低，与2001-2002年相比，从其他体重指数类别过渡到超重2级的概率大幅增加。预测显示，6至9岁儿童超重的风险显著增加（5年内从5%增加到14%），预计男性的增加幅度更大，成年人超重的风险将在今后许多年内增加，尽管成年人肥胖的流行率仍保持在目前的水平。结论.尽管美国成年人的绝对肥胖水平仍然很高，但肥胖的增长似乎已经停滞。相反，预计儿童体重指数最高类别的流行率将继续增长。
Background. Much of the literature on obesity has consistently documented the unprecedented rise in body weight over the past 2 decades. Less attention is paid to future projections of the population distribution of body mass index (BMI). Objective. To forecast the distribution of BMI in children (6-17 years) and adults (>17 years) in the United States (US) by age group, sex, and race over the period 2004-2014. Methods. Analysis of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data (2001-2002 and 2004-2005) to estimate and compare the 1-year transitions across BMI categories for children and adults. Forecasting distributions of obesity over 2004-2014 using a probabilistic population-level simulation model and validating it with prevalence data from 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Results. During 2004-2005, a majority of adults in each BMI category remained in the same category after 1 year, these estimates being not significantly different than the corresponding estimates in 2001-2002. Among children, stabilities within BMI categories are low during 2004-2005, and compared with 2001-2002, transition probabilities into overweight class 2 from other BMI categories increase substantially. Forecasts reveal significant increases in the risk of overweight category among children 6 to 9 years old (5% to 14% in 5 years), with a greater increase anticipated in males, and increases in the overweight category for many years to come for adults, although the adult obesity prevalence remains at the current levels. Conclusions. Although the absolute levels of obesity remain high among US adults, the growth in obesity appears to have stagnated. On the contrary, continued growth in the prevalence of the highest BMI category for children is anticipated.