Assessing the effect of climate natural variability in water resources evaluation impacted by climate change
Assessing the effect of climate natural variability in water resources evaluation impacted by climate change
复制标题
评估气候自然变率对受气候变化影响的水资源评估的影响
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.9251
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发表时间：
2013-03
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Jin, Junliang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Yanli;Zhang, Jianyun;Wang, Guoqing;Liu, Jiufu;He, Ruimin;Wang, Hongjie;Liu, Cuishan;Jin, Junliang
气候变化水资源评估在水资源规划和管理中至关重要。随着气候变化的加剧，这一问题变得更加紧迫。在目前的气候变化影响研究中，很少单独研究气候自然变率（波动）。许多研究将所有变化（如径流）都归因于气候变化，这可能导致对气候变化影响评估的错误理解。由于缺乏足够长的历史序列，气候变率的影响一直被刻意回避。基于拉丁超立方抽样技术，提出了一种用于气候变率模拟的块抽样方法。以1961-1991年为基准期，分析了气候自然变率对径流变化的影响。考虑到总共三种大气环流模式（CSIRO、NCAR和MPI）和三种排放情景（A1 B、A2和B1）的七种未来气候预测，从气候自然变率的贡献分离的角度估计了未来气候变化对水资源的影响。基于基准期的分析，未来2021 - 2051年，气候自然变率的影响可能占主导地位，而2061 - 2091年，温室气体引起的气候变化可能占主导地位的变化过程。结果表明，气候变率的变化具有相当的幅度，这突出了在评估气候变化时分开气候变率的影响的重要性，而不是将所有的变化都归因于气候变化。版权所有© 2012约翰威利父子有限公司.
Water resource assessment on climate change is crucial in water resource planning and management. This issue is becoming more urgent with climate change intensifying. In the current research of climate change impact, climate natural variability (fluctuation) has seldom been studied separately. Many studies keep attributing all changes (e.g. runoff) to climate change, which may lead to wrong understanding of climate change impact assessment. Because of lack of long enough historical series, impacts of climate variability have been always avoided deliberately. Based on Latin hypercube sampling technique, a block sampling approach was proposed for climate variability simulation in this study. The widely used time horizon (1961–1991) was defined as baseline period, and the runoff variation probability affected by climate natural variability was analysed. Allowing for seven future climate projections in total of three GCMs (CSIRO, NCAR, and MPI) and three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1), the impact of future climate change on water resources was estimated in terms of separating the contribution from climate natural variability. Based on the analysis of baseline period, for the future period from 2021 to 2051, the impact of climate natural variability may play a major part, whereas for the period from 2061 to 2091, climate change attributed to greenhouse gases may dominate the changing process. The results show that changes from climate variability possess a comparable magnitude, which highlights the importance to separate impacts of climate variability in assessing climate change, instead of attributing all changes to climate change solely. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
T. Page;K. Beven;J. Freer;C. Neal
通讯作者：
T. Page;K. Beven;J. Freer;C. Neal
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
R. Wilby
通讯作者：
R. Wilby
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Jonas, Tobias;Rixen, Christian;Stoeckli, Veronika
通讯作者：
Stoeckli, Veronika
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
C. Prudhomme;H. Davies
通讯作者：
C. Prudhomme;H. Davies
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
F. Pan;C. Peters-Lidard;M. Salé;A. King
通讯作者：
F. Pan;C. Peters-Lidard;M. Salé;A. King