Ambient temperature and nervous system diseases-related mortality in Japan from 2010 to 2019: A time-stratified case-crossover analysis
Ambient temperature and nervous system diseases-related mortality in Japan from 2010 to 2019: A time-stratified case-crossover analysis
复制标题
2010年至2019年日本环境温度与神经系统疾病相关死亡率：时间分层病例交叉分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161464
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Hashizume Masahiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin Szu Yu;Ng Chris Fook Sheng;Kim Yoonhee;Htay Zin Wai;Cao Alton Quan;Pan Rui;Hashizume Masahiro
背景尽管神经系统疾病造成了巨大的疾病负担，但很少有研究探讨环境温度与神经系统疾病之间的关系，特别是在寒冷季节。特定的疾病亚组，如阿尔茨海默氏症和帕金森氏症的证据也缺乏。ObjectivesThis study examined the association between short-term changes in ambient temperature and nervous system diseases related mortality in ten Japanese prefectures from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2019.MethodsA two-stage analysis based on a time-分层cases-crossover study design was carried out.应用条件拟泊松回归模型和温度分布滞后非线性模型，然后进行多变量随机效应荟萃分析，以获得平均关联。死亡率由于所有和特定原因的神经系统疾病（主要神经退行性疾病，阿尔茨海默氏症，帕金森氏症）进行了分析，考虑性别和年龄（0 - 84和85岁以上）subgroup.ResultsWe分析了162,315例死亡病例由于神经系统疾病。寒冷与所有类别的神经系统疾病相关死亡率相关，但与高温无关。通过比较日平均温度分布的第2.5百分位数与最低死亡温度（MMT），估计感冒的相对危险度为1.43对于所有神经系统疾病、主要神经退行性疾病、阿尔茨海默病和帕金森病，分别为1.37（95% CI：1.17 - 1.59）、1.53（95% CI：1.07 - 2.01）和1.54（95% CI：1.13 - 2.10）。一般而言，在性别和年龄亚组中也观察到这些相关性，但没有影响改变的证据。在85岁及以上的人群中，热（日平均温度分布的第97.5百分位数与MMT）与帕金森病相关死亡率相关。除了85岁及以上帕金森病患者的死亡率外，未观察到热的影响。
BackgroundDespite the substantial disease burden caused by nervous system diseases, few studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and nervous system diseases, especially during cold seasons. Evidence for specific disease subgroups such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's is also lacking.ObjectivesThis study examined the association between short-term changes in ambient temperature and nervous system diseases-related mortality in ten Japanese prefectures from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2019.MethodsA two-stage analysis based on a time-stratified case-crossover study design was conducted. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear model for temperature was applied followed by a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to obtain average associations. Mortality due to all and cause-specific nervous system diseases (major neurodegenerative diseases, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's) were analyzed, with consideration for sex and age (0–84 and 85+ years old) subgroups.ResultsWe analyzed 162,315 death cases due to nervous system diseases. Cold was associated with all categories of nervous system diseases-related mortality, but not heat. The estimated relative risks for cold, obtained by comparing the 2.5th percentile of daily mean temperature distribution to the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), were 1.43 (95 % CI: 1.28–1.60), 1.37 (95 % CI: 1.17–1.59), 1.53 (95 % CI: 1.07–2.01), and 1.54 (95 % CI: 1.13–2.10) for all nervous system diseases, major neurodegenerative diseases, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's, respectively. These associations were also observed in the sex and age subgroups in general but without evidence of effect modification. Heat (the 97.5th percentile of daily mean temperature distribution vs. MMT) was associated with Parkinson’s disease-related mortality among those aged 85 years and over.DiscussionCold was associated with an increased risk of nervous system disease-related mortality. The effect of heat was not observed, except for mortality among the elderly aged 85 years and older with Parkinson's disease.